Still Waiting, Cash is Good, But “Sensing” Change is coming

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Well the Market did poorly on Friday, being down in volume. This is usually not a good sign, but it was Friday

The Dow sure likes to hug 12K either just above as it was last week, or just below as it was at this weeks close on Friday

IBD (Investor Business Daily) once again continues their Current Outlook as: Market in Correction.

Copernicus is where I am sensing rotation, but perhaps it is just confusion on my part as all of the systems still point to short, at least that is my interpretation. Trying to glean some good news I see a slower drop in money flows, the key indicator they use…but it still dropped. 

Even gold has suffered in sympathy to the market. I am keeping an eye on Japan, as one would think it would crawl up one day. I continue to watch energy drop…it would have been good to have shorted this in some way

I did not add to my initial into SH position (SH is an inverse of the S & P 500) so I am still 1/3 into that and I see no reason to make any changes or additions.

As indicated for the past couple of weeks, if the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services.

…However I “sense” these will not be needed.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD +4.23%, second purchase +.72% …up a little from last week

SH  +.12% almost no change at all

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time

Have a great week.

On The Sidelines

Waiting is painful for me. Not much of a wait yet, but I prefer to be in the market, (assuming it has upward momentum) rather than on the sidelines. With the lack of clear direction I need to wait…and I just do not see a clear direction.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Well the Market did improve slightly this week.

On Friday we saw what appeared to be a solid bounce with the DOW closing at 12,004, which sounds good…and it is good. But looking at the details we see a pop at the open and a modest and slightly noisy decline for the rest of the day. The S & P 500 showed similar action and the NASDAQ was actually down for Friday

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues their Current Outlook as: Market in Correction.

Copernicus was not available to me as of this posting. I am assuming the systems there did not see a change from last week, which was pretty bearish. If I see something different when it becomes available I will update this post.

So what should one do to be cautious this week? Last week I said “Cash is good and getting neutral is probably a good plan.”  That still sounds good at this point

I did complete my selling, saying adios to EWG and IBB .

I began legging into SH.,with a 1/3 initial position.  SH is a "helpful" ETF that is an inverse of the S & P 500. This was not enough to make me fully neutral and during the week this appeared at times to be too little and at other times too much. However, looking at the change in value below you will see I don’t have a need to add or decrease this on Monday

As indicated last week, if the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services.

I will note that most of my dividend stocks appear to be holding up nicely, but dividend stocks are for another purpose and not for trading

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD 6.85%, second purchase 3.25% …up a little from last week

SH  0% change…in at $42.56 and closed Friday at $42.56, so I am right where I started on this one

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time

Have a great week and I am still hoping for an upward turn…I do not like shorting

Should we head for cover?

Well this does not look too good.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The S & P 500 has been down for 6 straight weeks, not a “horrible” amount but down 6.8% The NASDAQ has been down a greater amount.

I can look at a one year chart of the DOW and say that this is a normal little correction with the low points aligning nicely with earlier lows. See chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c

However in looking at the 5-year chart of the DOW it could be the start of a steep downtrend. See chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c

Which is right? I do not know, but we will see in time, so I need to be prepared

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues their Current Outlook  as : Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems notes that all three of their Money Flows are now negative and every system they have is bearish. Ouch!

So what should one do to be cautious? Cash is good and getting neutral is probably a good plan.

Those that read this blog (and thanks for reading and sharing this with your friends) know I have been selling recently. 

I will finishing selling and certain I am “neutral” by taking positions in an ETF that is an inverse of the S & P 500, SH.

This is to cover some mutual funds that are difficult to move in and out of (I do not like mutual funds for this reason) and likewise to balance the dividend stocks that I do not wish to sell

If the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD 6.36%, second purchase 2.77% …down from last week a little

EWG .19% this formally strong Germany ETF is almost underwater, will sell on Monday 

Normal ETF's:

IBB  -4.09% uncle, UNCLE I am out on Monday

Have a great week and I hope the market does turn upward…but hope is not enough

I Cannot Blame It All On Bad Timing

Well my timing was bad, very bad for last week’s purchases. I saw the “follow though rally” on Tuesday as being a turn in the market and made some purchases of LULU, AMGN and AXP on Wednesday morning. Turn it did, but the wrong direction.

But I cannot blame it all on timing. I just did not think these though long enough, especially LULU. In hindsight I did not have a good reason to buy this other than it was at the top of the IBD 50 and had been for some time…not a good reason at all for a momentum investor.

At this point the losses are not horrible, as you will see, but now it is time to summarize what the market is saying now and look at what to do on Monday

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has their Current Outlook  as : Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems is pretty clear this week, go short.

What is the Copernicus System? Well just as Copernicus ability to grasp that the Earth goes round the sun, could fundamentally change people’s view of things far beyond science, the Copernicus Systems has helped me greatly with my investing, perhaps more than anything else I have studied and followed.

Copernicus ranks the ETF’s and stocks followed each week and this is what I primarily review each week. Here is a link to the site. A free trial subscription is available. http://www.advanced-stock-selection.com/index.htm

In summary I will be selling and getting ready to do some shorting, likely by buying SH which is an ETF that effectively corresponds to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500. For the ETF’s I will hold for another week I will follow the box theory: When to Buy and Sell and The Box Theory

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains shown are the total since purchase)

LULU -3.98% …a poor choice it was, my fault

AMGN  -3.20% farewell

AXP  -.4.03 % goodbye

ETF's for a trade are:

GLD 7.06%, second purchase 3.44% …will hold as these continue to creep upward, nice gains thus far

EWY 3.82%. A nice little gain and will sell on Monday. Thank you Korea

EWG 3.00% will hold this Germany ETF for another week.

Normal ETF's:

IBB  -.95% will hold and watch for another week

HHH  -3.69%  Adios Amigo, will see you again I am sure

Have a great week.