Will we see a stock market rally next week?

The US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling continues. The real objective by the conservatives was and is to cut spending. Having this unresolved seems to have stymied the Market, which does not like unknowns. Looking at some daily charts during the week I sense that the market wants to rally a bit. If this is correct the market could rally when the agreements are finalized …assuming they are. I don't know how much, perhaps just back to the top of its recent trading range.

In regard to having this go unresolved, Boehner and Republicans have won on policy, forcing a national conversation about debt and pushing the President to focus on spending cuts and drop demands for new revenue (taxes). If unresolved Obama could go down as the president who lost the country's triple-A credit rating, and Boehner as the House speaker who let it happen…so this sure seems likely to get resolved.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) predictably changed their Current Outlook on Wednesday.

It is now: Market in Correction. 

IBD goes on to say:  “ It could open the door to a rally, or it could be judged an irrelevant kicking of the can down the road. There is no way to know in advance”.  This is certainly true but I feel the rally is more likely.

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be short,  but it is a little mixed.

Energy ETF’s still look good to me, both XLE and OIH. I took initial positions in both of these this week, thinking of them as a bit of a “black gold” hedge.

I am halfway though my mid year adjustment on dividend stocks. I sold CFR, CIM and SWK. I have not yet done the buying part but at some point I will be buying CSX, PX, XOM, BDX, and SJM. 

If you are interested in more on this last week I discussed how I evaluate these and so far so good.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN +2.76 %

BIDU  +8.40

AAPL + 9.58

I like Apple....and they have more cash than the US " Apple's quarterly financial report shows that the company now has $76.4 billion in reserve cash, while the Treasury Department is sitting on just $73.7 billion" ...go AAPL go!

ETF's for a trade are:

OIH – .23%

XLE –2.86

Have a great week!

Will Next Week Bring Opportunities?

It will be interesting to see what affect the US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling will have on the markets next week. Perhaps this will break the sideways market action that has been going on since mid February …(sideways if you smooth out the cycles).

 I don’t know what the result can be when the opposing sides seem so rigidly polarized,  but hopefully if the market is driven down it will just be a short term buying opportunity for value investors.

I am reminding myself of the sideways action, the cycles and the unknown effect that politics can have …so I will likely not be trading on Monday morning.

…but I will be ready when the clouds lift.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Confirmed UpTrend

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be long.

Energy ETF’s are looking good to me, both XLE and OIH.

GLD is also looking good… I need to buy and hold some gold

I will see how the markets look in the morning before deciding when to move or whether to move at all

Last Monday I sold AXP, HHH and SPY.

I held onto AMZN, BIDU and AAPL and I am pleased that I did so…these may be good to hold and let my “rules” guide when to sell.

I have been doing a mid year review on dividend stocks and will be making some needed adjustments. I will sell: CFR (who needs a bank now), CIM and AGNC (no more REITS for now, but the dividends have been incredible), SWK… a bit of a disappointment compared to what I found to purchase.

I will be buying CSX (I need a rail and this one looks great), PX (Praxair, I like the business and they are doing well), XOM (Exxon Mobil, time for some energy and this one is King), BDX (medical devices), and SJM (Smuckers, an excellent company and a little more food diversification).

For evaluation of dividend stocks I sum the current yield and the 5 year dividend growth rate. Currently I have a goal for this to be 11.5% or better. For example McDonald's, which I hold, is 32.26% and Walgreen's is 30.44%. The CSX I will be adding is 42.21%. By comparison Stanley was only 9.51%

 I look for stocks that have a consistent record of earnings growth and very consistent dividend increases. time. I also review the chart and look for consistently steady price application. 

This strategy is still evolving, but working well

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN -.01%, almost back to even after an early loss

BIDU  +6.28%, excellent

AAPL +10.38% stellar performance, simply stellar

ETF's for a trade are:

None for now

Have a great week…opportunities may abound for the brave, be ready!

..…A Little Hasty

Last weekend I pointed out that since mid February the market has actually been going sideways but with some significant up and down cycles.

I think this was, and is, correct ...but I sure missed something obvious and important. 

This was that there was good chance of the market currently being headed to one of those mini down cycles. Unfortunately I re-entered with some purchases and it looks like I now need to correct that action.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Uptrend Under Pressure

Last week I was mistaken when I said Copernicus “is now showing to be short … in my interpretation (This does bother me a little)”  …but that does seem to be correct for this week

On Monday I picked up AXP, AMZN, ARBA, BIDU, but did not pick up QCOM …I also added HHH and picked up AAPL and SPY  .

I will likely sell all or at least most of these on Monday…will decide the final resolution in the morning

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AXP -1.39%

AMZN -1.69%

ARBA -5.77%

BIDU  +1.40%

AAPL +2.41%

ETF's for a trade are:

XLV  -2.2%

IBB  -.57%

HHH -2.21%

Have a great week.

Market Direction is Mixed

Last weekend I said the market had turned and for most this past week that did appear to be the case. Even with the pop on Thursday and subsequent drop on Friday a nice gain occurred for the week…a good portion of it on Monday morning.  I hope we see a nice pop on this Monday as well

Trying to get the bigger picture I looked back and it appears that since mid February the market has actually been going sideways but with some significant up and down cycles. Will this continue? …hard to see that anything has significantly changed so perhaps it will and this is influencing my thinking

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Confirmed Up Trend.

Copernicus continues to be a little mixed, but is now showing to be short … in my interpretation. (This does bother me a little)

I did not complete all of my planed trades last week. I did sell GLD and  SH.  I did buy  XLV (healthcare) and IBB (biotech) but was unable to add  HHH (internet related)… I plan to do so on Monday as it looks even better now

With what I perceive as a cyclic sideways move of the market having occurred I have been looking for stocks that have been performing better than the market. I found quite a few of interest and have thus far narrowed the list down to AXP, AMZN, ARBA, BIDU and QCOM. Not sure what I will do on Monday, but I may buy a little of each and let my sell rules sort them out in time.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time, but hope to add as noted above

ETF's for a trade are:

None held at this time, none planed

Normal ETF's:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

XLV  -.56%

 IBB  +1.48%

Plan to add the HHH that I failed to pick up last week

Have a great week.

The Market Has Turned

July 4^th Weekend so this will be brief, but the Market appears to have turned. Last week I “sensed” that the market was turning. I try not to act on these senses at this point, but it has turned. Let’s hope it continues

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Uptrend Resumes.

Copernicus is a little mixed, but is showing long… in my interpretation.

Energy and Financials do not look good, but HHH (internet related) looks good and so does XLV (healthcare) and IBB (biotech)… I will be diving into all of these at least for initial positions 

I think it is time to step out of gold and will close the short position taken in SH

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time, will be looking at this more as time allows ...if the upward trend continues

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD +1.46% gain, will sell on Tuesday

SH  -5.30% Ouch! It seems this always happens when I go short, but it is insurance and thankfully only a 1/3 position was taken

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time, but will be diving into HHH,  XLV,  and IBB 

Have a great week.