Less Gloating and a New Addition

I mentioned in an earlier post that I was interested in picking up a basket of stocks equally dollar weighted from the top stocks of the IBD 50. That has now happened. I have followed these for several weeks now. The top stocks include Apple and other stocks that have outperformed Apple…does this seem possible?

Jumping to explain the “Less Gloating” portion, I have taken the current Apple holdings that were bought and added to a multiple times “for a trade” and converted this a “buy and hold” (Cramer agrees with this). Some refer to this tactic as “buy and hope”, which is somewhat truthful. My attitude toward this stock has changed. Yes, we have some nice gains in Apple (now at 37%) and to continue posting this…well it is just “gloating”. This stock is now paying a dividend, and Apple continues to march their great products around the world, country-after-country with great success. I know this can fall, as all stocks are somewhat evil in this manner of behavior,  but future selling will likely not be based on chart reviews and price performance alone but also in watching their product success. Last week I was getting prepared to sell based on a continued price drop, but fortunately the price drop turned into a pop after the recent handsome earnings report. So saying all of that leads to the explanation that I won’t continue posting the gains on that lot of Apple after this.

However not to add confusion, but to based on a new beginning, I just bought Apple for a trade and this portion is indeed for a trade.

Okay back to the first conversation. The IBD Market Outlook changed to “Confirmed Up Trend” this week and I jumped in with a basket of picks from the top of the IBD 50. I have not worked out definitive “Rules” on subsequent selling and more buying, but I have some thoughts in mind and rules will follow

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.97%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now rides to: Confirmed Up Trend! as noted earlier

Copernicus Systems seems to be more clear to be long in the market, (but still not 100% in all systems and I have great respect for Copernicus), Money Flows are now up in 2/3 portfolios .

IBD 50 Top Five: GNC, RGR, LQDT, SXCI, AAPL.

What will I do?

  I hope to buy more stocks and another ETF!

I am looking at stocks: EBAY, DIS and PFE and XLY, for the ETF, which seems to make sense as consumer confidence increases

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR  +11.05%, rebound continues

PCLN +30.15%, popping, now (2) in the bank and just into the second box .15

Both of these fine companies may join Apple and convert to buy and hold (at least Priceline which as a superb business model) and I should point out they are also high on the IBD 50.

Recent Additions this week from the IBD 50 are:

LQDT +3.65%

GNC +.57% (I almost passed on this one as I never see any traffic in their stores at the malls)

SXCI -1.41%

AAPL -2.01% (I know, I know, but at least I am not gloating)

ALXN -.34%

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -2.08% and I guess this is actually a buy and hold but it will stay here for now

IBB   (2) buys for +6.98% as the rebound continues.

EWY -.15%, recovering a little.

I hope you have a great week.

“Feeling” less cautious, but still cautious.

I’m not sure what to make of drops in Apple and Priceline. 

Is Apple beginning to cycle or channel? It’s hard to see it actually dropping with such great products and profits and a future that looks bright. Box Theory will still give it some room but further drops will command a sell. 

What is Priceline doing? Is it falling in sympathy to Apple? It will have plenty of room to run. 

Ruger is doing just the opposite. Is it a contrarian? It is one of the few I would consider buying more of, but buying now would be doing so against the IBD indicator

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.97%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now drops to: Market In Correction!

Copernicus Systems is still showing to be long in the market (but not 100% in all systems), Money Flows are still down in 3/3 portfolios, but there is a slight divergence with one portfolio rising in price

IBD 50 Top Five: LQDT, GNC, SXCI, AAPL, ALXN.   Some migration taking place here with LQDT jumping in and to the top , SXCI jumping in and RGR and PCLN being pushed out of the top five. Both of these new entries are interesting.

What will I do?

I would like to buy more RGR, but I took a larger position than normal for my first entry so perhaps I will stand pat for now rather than trying to swim against the tide.

  
Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  (4) buys for +30.24% so (2) in the bank and in the box .24 …wonder where this is going? Tentatively I will let it drop 8% below this box and then it will be saying it’s time to go

RGR  +7.63%, nice rebound…should I buy more?
PCLN +21.23%, dropping, but still (1) in the bank and in the box 5.23

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -3.20%

IBB   (2) buys for +3.53%, nice rebound this week

EWY -1.53% still watching, but will give it some room…why not it’s Korea

I hope you have a great week.

Still Cautious, Cash is Looking Better and Better

Which is better missing a gain or taking a loss?

I think most will agree we hate to miss a gain, but that is preferable to taking a loss. It is true you don't have an actual loss until you sell, but getting significantly down in a stock can take forever to recover from, so it is best to minimize losses. I have learned this lesson and do my best to minimize losses and try to take some gains along the way. Priceline and Apple have been outstanding performers, but it is doubtful this will last forever. The Box Theory will now let these drop a little but will tell me when to sell. RGR has a lot of potential, but again this can not be expected to hold up forever. 


I have been cautious for some time, but it seems to be warranted and I continue to be so.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.99%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Up Trend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems is still showing to be long in the market (but not 100% in all systems), however Money Flows are now down in 3/3 portfolios.

IBD 50 Top Five: RGR, AAPL, ALXN, GNC, PCLN.
 

Note: I am considering buying the top 5 of these as a basket when IBD turns up…and I know I already own 3 out of the 5, but it seems like an interesting strategy, buy the top 5 when IBD turns is positive and let the stocks tell you when to sell using the box theory.

What will I do?

I had to sell JBL  since, my last writing as it was looking poorly and I did sell most of the global ETF's as they no longer looked attractive.

I did buy RGR, but I have no intentions of further additions for now.

  

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  (4) buys for +37.57% so (2) in the bank and in the box 7.57

RGR  +.20%
PCLN +25.50%, continuing to climb so (1) in the bank and in the box 10.50

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -2.41%

IBB   (2) buys for +.29%

EWY -.47% Watching!

I hope you have a great week.

Apple and Priceline continue to gain, but .....

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.21%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now at: Up Trend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems is still showing to be long in the market (but not 100% in all systems). Money Flows are now up in 3/3  portfolios.

IBD 50 Top Five: RGR, AAPL, ALXN, GNC, LULU. 

What will I do?

I will take a more cautious turn; will sell EWZ, (which I hate to do) along with EEM and EWH.

I will buy RGR, …seems to make a lot of sense doesn’t it.

Take a look at the RGR chart and compare it to AAPL. You will see how powerful it has been and for some time. It is also soundly profitable and paying a dividend
  

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  (4) buys for +36.28 so (2) in the bank and in the box 6.28

JBL  -3.38, amazingly bad turn, so (Watching)

PCLN +22.65, continuing to climb so (1) in the bank and in the box 5.67

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -1.64

IBB   (2) buys for 4.66

EEM -1.03 adios  

EWZ -.4.90 adios

EWH -2.38 adios

EWY .56

I hope you have a great week.