New Rally Or Another Speed Bump Peak

It was so nice to see the DJIA close above 13,000 again, but does it have staying power?

From the chart above it can be seen that from the recent low in June we are now at the top of the peak of the fourth speed bump. It can be viewed as a rough road to travel, but upwards nonetheless.

Where does it go from here? Is this truly just the top of a speed bump or the start of a new rally? I’m not sure, but I will be looking at some buys.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is up this week to 1.55…not a good sign, but too soon to be meaningful. 

IBD (Investor Business Daily) as expected after the recent upturn is now:  Confirmed Up Trend 

Copernicus Systems: Is still long, but still mixed.

Moneys Flows are now up in all 3/3 portfolios and now no divergences in prices. Those that read this blog closely may remember that last week it was noted:  “Moneys Flows are now down in 3/3 portfolios, but a divergence in price is now seen; this is usually worth attention.” ….so it was worth attention

IBD 50 Top Five:

ALXN, SWI, MLNX, CRUS, HMSY, quite a bit of juggling

Last Week:

MLNX, AAPL, ALXN, GNC, CRUS 

Copernicus Top Stocks are:

AMBN, WMT, ARBA, MRK, EBAY, and more juggling here as well.

Last Week: 

ARBA, WMT, AAPL, BIIB, DIS  

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

BIIB 2.06 % and now profitable

IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

None at this time

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -4.41%, up a tad

What will I do?

It was good to see DOV, one of the dividend payers make a 4% gain on Friday. This one has been asleep for some time.This was a good reinforcment of needing to strengthen positions in these good solid companies.

I will be looking further at taking positions in MLNX, CRUS, AMGN and even WMT. These are all selected from the two groups of 5 above.

I am also intrigued with RGR which has not returned to IBD top 5 but it has been on a nice trend.

I hope you have a great week.

Indecision Rules

I thought at first glance I was to see some good news in this weekend review and there were some good things noted, …but in the end it was  Indecision Rules.  

The best news of the week was the good housing report with Sales up 4.5%, Prices up 7.9% and perhaps the most important was Housing Starts up 23.6%. I sure hope this continues

After last week’s review and discussion of the Dividend Payers I began the long overdue clean-up, first with some elimination of duplication. 

I sold Exxon as I hold Chevron which looks much better and Lowes won out over Home Depot.

I sold Waste Management due to poor performance compared with the S & P 500 and I decided to put Walgreens on a watch list for the same reason. Holding on to WAG was quickly rewarded with a nice rally this week. 

WW Granger, a great company in the Dividend Payers also rallied nicely this week.

I did finally take a position in  CHD and balanced this with more AAPL.  Since these are planned to be long term I will not track their performance here

So what did I see in my weekend review?

 The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.45, still continuing the ever so slightly downward path…a good thing (I think)

IBD (Investor Business Daily) visited the "Confirmed Up Trends" label this week, but quickly returned back to:  Up Trend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Is still long, but still mixed, but in a different sort of way, IMHO

Moneys Flows are now down in 3/3 portfolios, but a divergence in price is now seen; this is usually worthy of  attention.

IBD 50 Top Five: 

MLNX, AAPL, ALXN, GNC, CRUS  Mellanox ( MLNX) a fabless semiconductor company  in Israel (fabless = does not make them) reported a stellar quarter and the stock jumped 41%..good to see this action, even though I did not participate

Last Week:

CTRX, GNC, MLNX, ALXN, AAPL  

Copernicus Top Stocks are:

ARBA, WMT, AAPL, BIIB, DIS  ….good to see good old Wal-Mart doing so well

Last Week:

ARBA, BIIB, LNKD, VRSN, WMT

I think it is worth noting AAPL in both top 5, and perhaps this is still early 

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

BIIB -2.39%  ..getting tired of this one, but will continue to hold

 IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

 None at this time

 ETF’s for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD (3) buys for -6.76%

What will I do?

I will set tight and just let “Indecision Rule” and look for opportunities to trade FMU again.

I hope you have a great week.

Dividend Payer Review

I was able to spend some time this weekend on a  Dividend Payer Review.

This is a basket of stocks that I hold, not for a trade…just the opposite. 

I look for:

1. Companies that not only pay a dividend consistently but consistently grow this dividend.

2. Companies that are profitable both long term and short term.

3. I expect them to beat the S & P 500’s chart, both long term and short term. Why not? These do exist.

Do I bend these rules a little? Yes, at times, but hopefully the plan is clear.

I won’t explain the complete basket here, but the top performers seen in this review were: CHD, MCD and WEC.

I don’t actually own CHD, but I will shortly. I will also pick up the ETF VPU, which I think will be a great holding to add some regular dividend, currently at 3.5%.

I hold a few stocks that just pay a generous dividend. These best is  LEG with its 5.24% dividend.

However my analysis shows that in 5 years CHD, MCD and WEC have potential to exceed or closely match LEG’s dividend with the added thrust of growth in stock price. I should explain that the percent dividend may still seem low for these companies in 5 years, but the “effective” dividend should have gown nicely as hopefully the stock price has continued to rise as it has in the past.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

 The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.50, still trending ever so slightly downward.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has now returned once again to: Up Trend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Is still long but still mixed.

Moneys Flows are up now only in 1/3 portfolios with portfolio prices coinciding

.

IBD 50 Top Five: 

CTRX, GNC, MLNX, ALXN, AAPL  (good to see Apple’s return here). Interesting to see CTRX pop to number one, not sure why but “ Catamaran Corporation provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services and healthcare information technology solutions to the healthcare benefits management industry in North America”

Last Week:

GNC, QCOR, SXCI, MLNX, ALXN

Copernicus Top Stocks are:

ARBA, BIIB, LNKD, VRSN, WMT

Last Week:

ARBA, GSOL, WMT, BIIB, DIS

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

BIIB -.747%  Almost back to even, but the drop in position above causes concern…but will just watch for now

IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

None at this time

ETF’s for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD (3) buys for -6.48%

What will I do?

I hope to do some buying and selling adjustments in the Dividend Payers. I’m in no big hurry, but I  have a plan to execute.

I am also looking at picking up more AAPL, not for a trade. I included  AAPL in my dividend review analysis, just for comparison and the results reminded me of the benefits of accumulating this stock.

Likewise a position in CHD will be added. This will be added outside of the Dividend Payers. I think this is another great stock to just buy and hold and it will hopefully add some balance to the AAPL holding. 

If you are looking at some stocks to buy and hold, check out AAPL and CHD . Do some research, give it some thought and please make your own decision, but I would like to hear your thoughts.

The short term trading for trading the market via FMU did not continue this week…I suspect the daily volatility will return and I will be watching as time allows.

I hope you have a great week.