What’s Next?

What’s Next? ....I am guessing the bull market resumes shortly, but this is a guess tainted by optimism.

IBD headline notes: “Michael Kors Up, Dollar Tree Down As Luxury Dominates”.

Perhaps the market trend will be seen in the XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector. It has had an uptrend in place since June 24, but will it continue this time? A price above 57 and on toward 58 may not point to consumer confidence in general, but it has been steadily rising since May 2009 but I suspect when it finally gets through 58 the market will be in strong rally mode.

The mighty Nordstrom, JWN has also been outperforming the market since May 2009 and seems to be ready to get back to doing so.

I’m not sure how it is related but Shares of Noodles & Co. soared on the first day of its initial public offering Friday and it’s good to see an IPO ripping higher.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.48%

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems: Short

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -2.52%

AGNC: Sold at a loss, could have lessened this with a little more courage, but knowledge was gained.

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -3.56% 

XLF -1.96% 

IBB -.82% my best turnaround may be in biotech.

SPY -1.96%

What will I do?

I am still in the red on everything for a trade, but a little less so this week. I am ready for some of these to become good trades and profits to be taken, just need to continue patience.

XLY and PCLN deserve a closer look, time for both to run…but I will wait.

I hope you have a great week.

The Best Defense Is Cash On The Sidelines.

This week IBD notes: “Stocks Notch Fourth Down Week In Past Five Weeks”, separately they advised:  “The Best Defense Is Cash On The Sidelines”

This week we saw the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit a 15-month peak. This in turn led to the problem with utilities as seen in the ETF, XLU which slid 1.3%, cutting its year-to-date gain to 7.4%.

This is a good reminder that there is no guaranteed safety in "defensive" plays. Any position that has risk can fall. But good dividend payers that are long term holdings does it really matter at all?  If you own it for the dividend, dividend growth and long term price gain, does the price change in a few weeks matter at all?

Last week I noted I could not remember having all holdings for a trade in a negative position. This week did nothing but exacerbate that. Likewise I have to remind myself that no corrections last forever. This one could be over, but only time will tell for certain.

I did add IWM this week that I have wanted to pick up for some time. 

I also added the REIT; AGNC. 

All of the positions for a trade except AGNC are now protected with stop losses to limit to total loss to a range of 7 to 8%. 

I only intended to own AGNC until just before the X-date and pick up the gain that occurs then. This may still be the best plan, but this could be turned into a long term investment. It pays a very nice dividend currently of around 18%, but it is decreasing the dividend and the share price has also decreased. I don’t have a lot of expense with REIT’s

AGNC does not have a long term record but the business seems simple enough and the reason for the drops seems understandable. What I don’t know is how much more will the dividend drop and how quickly will this occur?

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.51 up 3.93%.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has switched to: Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems: Short.
Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -4.11%

AGNC -9.25%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -4.70%

XLF -3.62% 

IBB -3.84%

SPY -2.51%

What will I do?

With my general optimism on business, I won’t be selling my positions and running for the sidelines. I will let the market decide by letting my stop losses continue. The four down weeks may have been enough of a correction and it it goes down from here the stops will take me to the sidelines.

Dealing with the REIT…not sure, will watch it up until Tuesday and decide then.

Long term holdings such as dividend payers… just setting tight. I don’t let market conditions concern me at all, just profitability and dividend growth.

I hope you have a great week.

Some Buying, But Still Cautious

I did take positions in IBB, SPY and more XLF this week, but all are down.

I can’t remember having all holdings negative, perhaps this has happened, but it seems foreign to see this.

How will this end? Well if could mean I made some good buys or it could end up pointing to bad timing that ends in losses.  I will let my sell rules guide me and limit my losses it that becomes needed.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.13

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has switched to: Confirmed Up Trend which was a surprise to see after Friday’s action, but the volume on Friday was lower than Thursday.

Copernicus Systems: Long but mixed IMHO.

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed down…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -.88%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -.69%

XLF -1.43%

IBB -1.12%

SPY -1.03%

What will I do?

I would still like to add IWM and EWG, ALU, DRIV all look interesting.

I hope you have a great week.

Right Back In, But Cautiously So

I did the planned selling of FLT, BRLI, DTV, SANM, SOHU and WBSN based on the poor weekend review of last weekend. The net on this was at least positive. 

Fortunately I held onto XLF, YHOO and QQQ and just protected them with stop losses and decided to let the market decide when they should be sold….and they all held up well.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.16

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Market Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Now up in some systems so mixed.... IMHO

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

SANM  sold for +5.68 % gain
 
FLT  sold for +6.22% gain
 
SOHU  sold for +1.21% gain

DTV sold for -3.10% loss

WBSN sold for -.24% loss

BRCI sold for -2.10% loss

Held:
 
YHOO   +.22%

ETF’s for a trade are:

Held:

QQQ -.69%

XLF +.22%

What will I do?

I really am ready to dive back in but caution is this my guide. I will be looking to pick up IWM or the SPY or maybe both and I’m ready for IBB once again.

I hope you have a great week

Hold the Emotions, But More Selling to Come

I did some selling this past week as planned, followed with picking up DTV, WBSN, BRLI and XLF.

I will be mostly selling this week, even the newcomers.

What did I see in my weekend review?
The 10-yr Treasury yield continues to slowly rise, now up to 2.16%

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Market Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Short - Short for the US market, Short for Global
Moneys Flows:  All three pointed down…all still in positive territory, but one is near zero

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
GILD   Sold +4.87% gain

SANM  +5.11 % to be sold
BIIB  Sold +8.76% gain 
FLT  +6.24 to be sold
YHOO  -.81% to be sold 
SOHU  +.73% to be sold 

DTV -3.40% to be sold

WBSN -.01% to be sold

BRCI -1.93% to be sold

ETF’s for a trade are:

EFA  Sold +4.1% gain

EWJ Sold -2.20% loss

XLY Sold-.2 %loss

QQQ -.88% to be sold

XLF -.44% to be sold

What will I do?

I think I will go for a nice bike ride this evening.

I hope you have a great week