Weekend Stock Review

Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed:

HON

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.74 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now predictably: Uptrend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Short

Moneys Flows: all positive, but one portfolio has seen price drop markedly

Stocks:

CLF sold at a loss

HAIN +13.38% Sell

WWAV -2.15%

ETF’s:
QQQ +10.06% Hold

EWG -1.28% Sell

IBB +7.75% Sell

IWM -1.72% Sell

Cramer Picks:

JCI -4.52%

BAC -1.67%
CAT -5.78%
CIEN -1.52%
GOOG -3.11%
XLNX -1.94%
TJX -6.09%
MMM -5.11%
HON -1.79%
JNJ -3.21%
BA -4.12%

What will I do?

I’m clearly on the wrong side of this drop with initial positions already taken in the Cramer picks. Now should be the time to begin taking these positions. At this point should I hope for good news or prepare for the worst?

Some good earnings by market leaders could turn sentiment quickly; some bad news could cause it to drop seriously.

I will sell or hold as noted and place stop losses on others. If the market does drop precipitously I hope to be able to re-enter.

I hope you have a great week….it could be interesting.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

The naive believe everything, but a wise man looks well into a matter ...part 2

The progress of reviewing the Cramer stocks has been slow. That is fine and I will continue to do this as time allows. I have been buying some of the Cramer picks, but only with partial positions.

Cramer’s list of stock to own:

Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed:

HON

Here are notes from the continues review:

Bank of America

Bank of America is a holding company with banking and financial service in the US and over 46 foreign countries around the world. But there are a lot of banks, so why this one? Likely its Cramer’s choice as its price still has more recovery than Wells Fargo or JP Morgan. They fell further and still have more ground to make up. Wells Fargo fell the least.

I can’t say that I like banks, but we do need them. In spite of being a global company BAC touts having maintained their local focus. It does seem to be that way in spite of all the past wrong doings. I first liked that they are based in Charlotte, North Carolina, but then realized that this is just a perception and means nothing at all.

They do have a couple of avenues in place for wealth management with both Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and U.S. Trust. I did not look at the details of this, but no doubt this generates a lot of revenue.

Banking is a complicated business, so who is in charge?

The CEO is Brian Moynihan who has been in charge since the financial crisis, when they had large mortgage losses. He may not have the charisma of Jamie Diamon, but he is credited for the turn around. He is a lawyer, educated first at Brown and then Notre Dame.

For diversification I have been trying to find a bank that fits as a player in my dividend payers and growers, but a true bank just does not fit, so I desire to get a full position into BAC.

Ciena Corporation (CIEN)

I must confess I knew little about this Cramer pick and now I know, to put it simply, they design network systems.

They cite: “With our deep expertise in optical, Ethernet, and network automation, we specialize in unlocking that potential.” Scanning their website they do seem to be a bit of a pioneer.

I like that they grow, they acquire, and they are global. I don’t like to see a negative EPS.

I like their participation in the telecom sector, but it is a bit complicated to go deeper, so I will move on and try to learn more as time goes on. I normally don’t buy stock in companies that are not profitable but it’s easy to see that this one could really fly in terms of price growth or of cource the opposite could occur.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.83 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is: Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows: all positive, but continuing to trend downward

Stocks:

HAIN +17.69% and yes I would buy this one again, so no selling here now. (Also need to consider WWAV)

CLF -9.14% I don’t like this, but it’s a very small position why not give it one more week.

Cramer Picks:

JCI -.63%

BAC +1.68%

CAT -1.09%

CIEN -1.64%

GOOG -.81%

XLNX -1.19%

TJX -1.33%

ETF’s:

QQQ +11.50%

EWG +1.54%

IBB +9.25%

IWM +.42%

What will I do?

Continue my study of the Cramer recommendations, will continue to take partial positions.

I hope you have a great week.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

The naive believe everything . . . but a wise man looks well into a matter.

Back in August I wrote a blog with the above title which is based on a paraphrase of a Proverbs 14 verse. I thought it was a good time to reuse this title, as a note to self, that I don’t need to get into a hurry…there is plenty of time to do the right thing.

My goal has been to study the list posted last week and begin a review of each stock.

I may still take some small positions but before taking a full position I should look well into the matter.

The goal is not to do financial study nor a technical analysis but rather to see it is seems logical that this is a good investment for a moderate length of time.

Cramer’s list of stock to own:

Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed:

HON

My thoughts on the first three companies:

Google:

Doing a little internet study you can see that many think Google is overpriced with a high PE of around 31. This does not bother me, as I am not sure how a company such as this should be correctly valued. I do like that it is profitable; it is aggressive and looks well into to future for its markets. In addition to providing the favored search engine that dominates online searches, it owns You Tube. It has also created the Android open source mobile software, web browser Google Chrome, Google Wallet for payments, Google TV and the wonderful Google Maps and the list goes on and on.

What can you say other than it’s a very clever company that is currently in the internet leadership role. We have seen the stock rise over the past 5 years from around $300 to over $1100 and during the past year alone its' up over 55%.

However its unknown what the future will bring. Today’s internet darling has a lot of competition. They are very, very good, but it’s the undiscovered new leader that will someday develop something that we all must have that could replace Google. A second negative is it does not have a role in China. For now the pros out weigh the cons in my mind and I want to own this powerhouse but with no dividend I will be careful to avoid a long-term slump or even worse.

General Electric:

I began buying this fine stock back in October 2008. It did not originally fit my requirements as a dividend payer as it had cut its dividend, but the company appeared to be on a good path and the hunch has paid off over time. I actually sold some in 2013 due to the need for portfolio rebalancing. The best could yet be ahead, if I did not already own it I would buy some here.

Johnson Controls:

Johnson Controls has long been associated with building efficiency, something that is very desirable. They also are involvement in automotive which should see additional growth.

The building efficiency segment designs, produces, markets, and installs integrated heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems, as well as building management systems, controls, and security and mechanical equipment.

The Automotive Experience segment designs and manufactures seating systems, instrument panels, electronic convenience features, floor consoles and door systems.

They produce automotive lead acid batteries, as well as lithium-ion battery technologies for hybrid and electric vehicles.

I really like the building efficiency portion, but the only thing I see in the automotive section that I find of interest is the battery technologies for hybrid and electric vehicles. The US automotive industry just has such a bad reputation for poorly treating their suppliers. I know this may have changed and I know Johnson controls has been a survivor and doing this for a very long time, but I done think this stock will ever merit a full position for me.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.86 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is: Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows: all positive, but continuing to trend downward

Stocks:

HAIN +8.69%

CLF -7.75% way too early going into this one

ETF’s:

QQQ +9.93%

EWG +.44%

IBB +5.41%

IWM +.07%

What will I do?

I added ETF’s IWM, EWG, and IBB since my last post. All of these have been held before and they are off to a good start.

I also added CLF thinking it was time for this industry to shine, but it’s off to bad start. Clearly I did not look well into the matter. I vacillate between doubling down or just taking the loss…likely I will take a loss, as this is not a stock that I intend to hold as an investment. But let’s see what it does this week.

I hope to continue my study of the Cramer suggestions, will perhaps take some initial positions.

I hope you have a great week.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Time for Investing

In my last post before the holidays I mentioned it appears I will outperform the market with the stocks held long term in my “dividends payers and growers” and probably underperform the market with the stocks I traded.

Therefore it’s time for a new approach that involves more investing and less trading.

I am an unabashed CNBC junkie and in particular have been following Jim Cramer since his radio days. I will never be able to trade like Cramer or even with Cramer, but a few weeks ago he mentioned a list of stocks for folks to own that got my attention:

Later he followed this with a list of companies that he considered to be well managed: