How to Buy a Tesla

TSLA is no doubt a risky momentum stock. It is overpriced by many metrics and comparison with other car companies show that this is impossible to continue. However Tesla is not like any existing car company…not by any means.

The cars are very attractive, very powerful and being all electric they are very unique. It’s interesting to go to YouTube and see them racing Vipers, Corvettes and beating them in a quarter mile. How can an electric car do this?

They are quickly developing a following. Many love the idea of being able to recharge in their garage and avoid the time consuming experience of refueling.  The available recharging stations are growing rapidly. A supercharging station can provide a half charge in 20 minutes and they are available coast-to-coast…and they are free…and free for life.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

So why not buy one of these, well they are very expensive at $70- $100K, so what do I propose as a means of buying one? Just buy the stock; it has been up 400% in the last year. I sure don’t know if that is possible again this year, but I don’t know that it is not.

It has been called a cult stock, but the company is doing extremely well and could be truly profitable soon, perhaps wildly profitable in the future. It has outwitted those that try to short it.

No doubt Ford and GM will follow suit, but both have a history of stumbling when the do. Do you remember their multiple attempts at minivans that led nowhere?

I see it as another Apple type of stock with game changing leadership. As soon as your neighbor is able to fill up in his garage and drive coast-to-coast for free you will have to have one too.

The stock is a risk, as is any stock, but often with risk come reward.

The Cramer stocks that I have picked up are gaining steam.

For reference Cramer’s list of stock to own: GOOG,  GE, JCI, BAC, CIEN,  XLNX, AAPL, CAT, BA, JNJ and  TJX.  Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed: MMM, WFM and  HON.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.73 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long IMHO

Moneys Flows:  all positive

Stocks:

HAIN +.10 %, good to see green here again

Momentum Stocks:

AMZN -1.25% …and bad to see red here

TSLA +7.27%, thanks to a blowout earning report

PCLN +3.03%, good to have this one aboard once more

ETF’s:

QQQ +4.10%

QLD -.33%, a new addition this week

IWM +.19%

IBB +8.16%

SPY -.36%

Cramer Picks:

BAC -2.27%...not sure what is wrong here

CAT +6.61%

CIEN +8.67%

GOOG +3.78%, who would have thought GOOG would be lagging CAT? That is why I like baskets!

XLNX +6.63%

HON +4.27%

BA +1.16%

What will I do?

I have been adding to existing holdings when it seems appropriate, hope to continue.

I know I have far too many holdings, this is evident as I see mistakes made in last week’s blog, sorry about that…too many stocks, too little time.

Consumer Spending

I could not help but notice the restaurant and shopping mall parking lots were full this week. It has been a long time since I have seen this. I don’t know if consumer spending is up, but they are sure out in force.

I take this as good sign. I know that not everyone is back to work yet, but many companies are hiring so hopefully full employment will arrive soon. This of course means the Fed will stop the presses, but that is well understood, so no surprises.

Baskets of stocks have work well for me so this week I decide it was time to get some momentum players and I took initial positions is AMZN and TSLA. I wanted PCLN in the worst way to complete the trio, was hoping for a nice entry point but it was just not offered.

The largest basket of stocks I have ever pursued is the Cramer picks. For reference:

Cramer’s list of stock to own: GOOG,  GE, JCI, BAC, CIEN,  XLNX, AAPL, CAT, BA, JNJ, TJX
Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed: MMM, WFM, HON

I may not own the whole basket, having bought some poorly and getting stopped out during the recent stumble, but I have been left with a group of strong performers that I am fairly content with .

Apple:

Continuing the review of Cramer picks, it is time to take a look at Apple, a company I should know well, having owned it, traded it and held it when I should have sold it. When the loss got out of control, I put it away, content to hold it until a comeback. Fortunately it has been recovering, but I still have a loss. Perhaps I will bring it out of hiding when I am back to even.

Apple is a California company was founded in 1977 by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne. Its beginning was for the development of a different and easy-to-use personal computer. Apple had some success, developed a following then went through a decline that was almost fatal. It could have disappeared but it was resurrected. Their success has always been credited to Steve Jobs, whose passing has been a concern, but he placed the company in the hands of the capable Tim Cook. No doubt Tim Cook was a great choice, perhaps the best possible choice, but it has to be recognized that the visionary leadership is gone. This leadership brought forth personal computers that many are willing to pay a premium to own, the various iPods, iPads, iPhones, iTunes, iCloud and the successful full-service Apple Stores.

They now have a great lead and the products are still formable. I like to think it’s all about the apps which makes it hard not to favor their devices. They could stumble or be left in the dust if someone offers a better mousetrap, but with a huge amount of cash and capable business leadership they should at least be stable.

The period of trailblazing innovation by this company may be unrepeatable and it may never be a momentum stock again, but the near-term future of the stock should be solid as they focus on shareholder value, paying a reasonable dividend, buying back stock and not making mistakes.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.65 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now Confirm Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long IMHO

Moneys Flows:  all portfolios positive and finally one now trending upward….markedly so.

Stocks:

HAIN -2.10 %

Momentum Stocks:

AMZN +1.93%

TSLA +1.45%

ETF’s:

QQQ +1.96%

IWM -1.20%

Cramer Picks:

BAC -.18%

CAT +5.57%

CIEN +11.37% nice pop this week

GOOG +3.70%

XLNX +4.40% very nice turn this week

HON +5.03%

BA +4.64%

What will I do?

For ETF’s I’m ready for more IBB, QQQ, and IWM, perhaps a position in XLV and the good old SPY. I could also take a flier in the QLD.

Some stocks or ETF’s to benefit from my perception of increases consumer spending would be appropriate…but not yet.

I hope you have a great week.

Has The Market Turned?

As mentioned last week the market has just been unstable and unpredictable. This led to some positions being stopped out and this continued this week with positions stopped out in JNJ, WWAV, and HAIN. Fortunately the stop in HAIN protected a nice gain.

I re-entered QQQ, after having taken a profit and retook positions in HAIN and BA. Overall I have done okay, but it would have been much better if I had been entering buy orders instead of stop losses….perhaps next time. To be optimistic perhaps this shakeout left me in strong stocks for future gains.

But has the market turned? It does “feel” promising.

No time for work on the review of the Cramer stocks, for reference:

Cramer’s list of stock to own: GOOG,  GE, JCI, BAC, CIEN,  XLNX, AAPL, CAT, BA, JNJ, TJX

Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed: MMM, WFM, HON

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.65 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now Market In Correction

Copernicus Systems: Long IMHO

Moneys Flows:  all positive and portfolio prices have turned upward.

Stocks:

HAIN -1.22 %
WWAV stopped out

ETF’s:

QQQ +1.05% a nice reentry
IWM -4.06%

Cramer Picks:

BAC +.54%

CAT +3.73%

CIEN +1.26%

GOOG +1.51%

XLNX -3.53%

HON +3.24%

BA +2.12% a very nice re-entry

What will I do?

For ETF’s I would like to re-enter IBB, perhaps a position XLV as well.

For stocks I looked at FFIV, but will pass for now and try to add to existing positions

I hope you have a great week.

The naive believe everything . . . but a wise man looks well into a matter ...part 3

The market has just been unstable and unpredictable. This led to some of my stocks being stopped out and sold at a loss, however this was offset by others taking a nice turn.

 

I have not been able to allow much time on stocks recently, perhaps that is for the best. I have enjoyed the bits and pieces of time pasted together in doing a review of the Cramer picks, hopefully this will be beneficial

For reference:

Cramer’s list of stock to own: GOOG,  GE, JCI, BAC, CIEN,  XLNX, AAPL, CAT, BA, JNJ, TJX

Cramer’s list of companies that he considered to be well managed: MMM, WFM, HON

Back to the review:

Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) is a San Jose company founded in 1984. They design programmable chips, they are profitable and they pay a dividend. 

They seem to be a leader in the 28nm and have a close relationship with a manufacturing partners in Taiwan and other locations. They are a "fabless" semiconductor company, which means they do not own or operate any of the wafer-making facilities. Wafers are needed to make the integrated circuits they produce and sell.

This production minimization allows focus on research, development, marketing, and technical support for its products.

They are clearly a leader owning just over half of the entire programmable logic market, but the competition in this market is fierce. Does this make them vulnerable or does it make them strong?

Xilinx customers are the like of Cisco, Sony, IBM and Siemans. I don’t see Apple as a customer. Their customers program these devices using their own software.

I like what I have learned about Xilinx and I like leaders that do well. I view not doing the manufacturing of the wafers as a plus as it allows them to have others focus on this which likely reduces cost. I also like they provide a good tool to their customers that in turn put their own mark on these devices. I like that they are constantly advancing their art, likely the key to long term success.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.67 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Uptrend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Short IMHO
Moneys Flows:  all positive, but all portfolio process have dropped this week

Stocks:

HAIN +10.83% …did not sell

WWAV -.80%

ETF’s:
QQQ …ended up selling, nice gain but would like to reload

EWG sold, modest loss

IBB sold at nice gain

IWM -2.84% …did not sell

Cramer Picks:

JCI stopped out

BAC +.12%, nice turn

CAT +2.68%, nice turn

CIEN +3.93%, nice turn

GOOG +1.81%, nice turn

XLNX -2.86%

TJX stopped out

MMM stopped out

HON +1.27%, nice turn

JNJ -5.49%

BA stopped out

What will I do?

No plans

I hope you have a great week….it could be interesting.