Is it too late to short?

Last week would have been a good time to short, but hindsight vision has much better clarity.  The market has been affected by earnings lower than expectations. This surprised me but perhaps it will lower expectations going forward.

As seen above we still are well clear of an S&P 500 drop to 1396. This had been cited by a technician as one of the Fibonacci numbers that if breached, will signal a greater drop going forward.

At this point no trend is obvious to me, perhaps just more cycling from here. One would assume that the upcoming presidential election would bring some clarity.

What did I see in my weekend review?
The 10-yr Treasury Yield is at: 1.75
IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction 
Copernicus Systems: is late due to AT&T issue
Moneys Flows unknown, anxious to see results

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL -6.82% This stock actually dropped below 600 briefly one day this week. But I did not have an opportunity to look and see if there was a reason for this, will still consider adding more on future drops.

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD +.68%

EWG -2.00

IWM -4.47%

SLV -5.91% actually up a tad 

Doghouse:

This new category still seems to be good for candidates waiting for recovery. (They must be profitable). ALXN joins this week.

ALXN -15.83%  This is a single drug healthcare stock and volatility should be expected. This seems to be a solid stock financially so it gets some room.
FRAN -13.67% this retailer seemed to be a great stock. However I did some “mall” research on it and visited a store for the first time. There were people in the store but it’s just not at all what I thought it was, will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
ALGN  -30.41% dropped a little more this week

What will I do?

Simply continue to wait this out. 

I am well aware that the market could well drop lower and additional stocks could go to the doghouse as did ALXN this week.  But I am hoping that any drop wall not last long.

A bit more comment on the mall research performed this week. The biggest surprise was the business at Nordstrom and the number of people carrying Nordstrom shopping bags at the mall. Other busy stores were: Pottery Barn, Banana Republic, Ann Taylor, Gap (with badly scratched floors), Bed Bath and Beyond.

Stores noticeably less busy: American Eagle, Express, Guess. Limited,  Fossil, Chico’s

Sort of in between were: Dillard’s (visited early), Abercrombie and Fitch (what an “experience”), True Religion, Buckle and Saks

I hope you have a great week.

Still looking for a dip?

In my last post, a couple of weeks ago I asked: Where is the dip, behind us or still ahead?
Well this past Friday had a nasty little drop . Will this continue next week or will it rebound from here?
Bad earnings earnings drove it down on Friday, hopefully once that news settles in this factor will loose its grip.

Stocks discussed here have taken a beating as well as the dividend payers that are only rarely discussed here as they are not traded. Taking a clue from the overall success of the dividend payers I will try holding onto some of these down stocks that were bought for a trade, as long as they are profitable companies. 

We still did not see the S&P 500 did not drop to 1396. This had been cited by a technician as one of the Fibonacci numbers that if breached, signaled a greater drop going forward. 

In summary at this point no trend is obvious to me, but it sure not a time for new investments, although some great stocks are now on sale.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.77

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has now sunk to: Market In Correction 

Copernicus Systems: Is now indicated to be Short.

Moneys Flows still continue downward in all three portfolio’s, but perhaps they are reshaping in one, next week should clarify this action.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
ALXN -4.90% 
AAPL -5.36% will still consider adding more if it drops further.

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD +1.31% even gold has been hammered down a little

EWG -.19 down a little, but holding okay

IWM -3.53%

SLV -5.96% silver hammered more than gold

Doghouse:

A new category for stocks that still seem to be good candidates for recovery, but may need to be held for a prolonged period to do so.

FRAN -13.43% this retailer seems to be a great stock, I need to do some research on it (I plan on selling this retail stock on or before Dec 1)
ALGN  -26.17% Ouch! This healthcare stock was knocked down simply because its revenue increase was less that expected.

What will I do?

Simply wait this out. No new nickels will enter…expect perhaps for more Apple, even that seems unlikely at this point....but this a great company and this is the time to buy it at a good entry point. Perhaps that entry point price will get even better!

I know the market could well drop lower and additional holdings could go to the doghouse or be sold at a loss. But I am hoping that any drop wall not last long.

I hope you have a great week.

Where is that dip?

Where is the dip, behind us or still ahead?
  

I keep expecting a dip, or a drop before the election, maybe it is wrong to think so. Was it that little thing on September 26? Is it already off to the races? I have to remind myself that I do not know the future and should best leave that to others. We will know in a few weeks.. With the unemployment rate down to 7.8% perhaps the economy is already starting its new run.

I took a moment and reviewed the XTN which is a transportation ETF, one that is more trucking related and broader than the more well-known IYT. Comparing this to the S & P 500 we see it has been dribbling since March, but averaging just a steady lateral move. In that same time period the     S & P 500 has had a dip and then a nice steady climb. Which is leading, which is lagging?

  

Perhaps the transportation stocks have been waiting, just waiting and posed for takeoff. First ignoring the dip they should have taken and now ignoring the market rise until the election is over or at least until the outcome is clear. It was clear who was likely to win, but now it is less so.

Last week I noted that the S&P 500 did not drop to 1396. This had been cited by a Technician as one of the Fibonacci numbers that if breached, signaled a greater drop going forward. Perhaps it has held and rally has started. 

I think it will all be cleared in the next week or two and we will know the trend.

What did I see in my weekend review?

 The 10-yr Treasury yield is now up to 1.73…perhaps wrong to pay too much attention to this number weekly.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues:  Confirmed Up Trend 

Copernicus Systems: Is now long, but still mixed. It is clearer that the global ETF’s stocks are in control over the US ETFs. 

Not all Global ETFs are climbing, but FXI (China) and EPI (India) are gaining ground in the rankings, so are EWH, EWW, EWT and EWY. Falling are Australia and Canada along with Japan.

Moneys Flows still has money flows all down, but two out of three prices are rising.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
FRAN -7.84% still bad but recovering (I plan on selling this retail stock on or before Dec 1)
ALGN  1.73% a nice gain for the week
RAX sold for a modest profit this week
ALXN +4.40%  a nice gain this week, thank you very much
AAPL -.36% was added on a dip, may add more if it drops further. 

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD +4.74% this is actually not a trade but a long term holding

EWG +.24% a nice gain, now positive

IWM -.98%, gaining for the week, but not yet positive

SLV +1.27% dropping this week 

What will I do?

Last week my watch list was simply : CTRX, and GOOG. This week, these still look good but I will add to the watch list :  TDG, RND, GIB, EBAY, HD, JCOM, all great stocks right now. However still no buying “planned”. I would rather be a seller right now.

I did add Apple last week since it was on sale and may add more if it drops lower. Its earnings are great, the PE is only 15.34 and it is now paying a cool dividend of 1.6%. I should point out this is still a trade for now, not a long term position, hope to retake that long term position later

I hope you have a great week.