Have We Seen The Bottom?

First let me say that I will likely not be posting next weekend, but will post when possible 

Last week I said I was comfortable doing nothing, but I did end up doing some selling. It was time to remove at least some of the protection so I sold the all of the SDS and about half of the SH 

The protection with short ETF's was to balance some illiquid mutual funds that are long in the market. For this account I am now looking at going into a bond fund and percentage-wise get my age into the bond fund and 100-age in the mutual fund...then just not worry about this account too much.

I do not like bond funds but I sure don't like mutual funds, so for this account the available bond fund is beginning to make a little sense and I will be giving it a try. Hopefully this will leave me a little freer to focus on stocks, ETF's and periodic reviews of dividend payers.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Amazon was up nicely on Friday. I don't currently own it but try to follow it. My dividend payers have been doing well. Notably GWW hit a 52 week high last week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems is still a little mixed and still showing to be short in my interpretation, but less so than last week. Money flows are still trending upwards and now so are the portfolio prices.

If I were ready to re-enter on Monday it would be with:

ETF's:  HHH and BBH

Stocks: MRVL, AMZN, and YHOO

...but I am not ready just yet

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 12.4 %, up nicely this week

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 6.41 %

GLD  + 2.18

GDX -1.78%

Have we seen the bottom? That is sure not clear to me yet

What will I do next week? I may move out of the rest of SH.

 

I hope you have a good week

I am pretty comfortable doing nothing

European financial issues and anything else still readily affects the US markets. Perhaps being reminded of the tragic events of 10 years ago exacerbated the drop on Friday.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Confirmed Uptrend…. however they warn that the choppiness should urge caution

Copernicus Systems is no longer mixed with all systems now showing to be short…however money flows are trending upwards. I am learning to look for divergences and I see a divergence in some of the weekly portfolio prices trending down and the money flows trending up…does this mean an upward change is coming? I am not yet confident in my understanding but I will watch this closely to learn.  

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 4.97 %, up about 1% this week

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 2.97 %

SH    - 1.41 %

SDS  - 5.76 %

GLD + 4.89%, but actually down this week

GDX +. 81% a new addition this week, an ETF of gold miners

Looking back at my earlier purchases of SH and SDS my timing could sure could have been better. These should be up, but I remember making these purchase on down days....perhaps I was a little fearful at the time and a little late. It is what it is and it is also protection to make me somewhat neutral against some illiquid mutual funds.

What will I do next week? I am pretty comfortable doing nothing and waiting to see if the market finds a fixed direction.

Have a great week

Brief Update

So what did I see in my weekend review?

My Dividend Payers are in general back to their 50 day averages.

On Friday the market gave up their gains for the week and gold has rallied once again. The gold miners look interesting. GDX is an ETF for this.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows : Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is still mixed, at least in my interpretation. Money flows have stopped falling are moving sideways and slightly up, but far from robust.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 4.97 %

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 4.38 %

SH    - 2.59 %

SDS  - 8.29 %

GLD + 6.37%

With gold going like a rocket it is hard to add more. I may add some GDX on Monday, perhaps some more SH.....still need some more thought on all of this.

Have a great week

What Stocks Have Performed Well?

Last week I mentioned RGR had out performed gold…and I have not seen anything else that has done so well

KO (Coke) has done well, hardly dipping.

AAPL (Apple) has had concerns but held up in spite of the news of Jobs stepping aside.

MCD (MacDonald’s) has been stellar but still gold has been hard to beat.

All of these have outperformed the Dow; see Chart

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) made three changes in their Outlook this week and ended up with: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.  …I just don’t see this whipsaw action as a confidence builder

Copernicus Systems is mixed, at least in my interpretation. Money flows have stopped falling and appear to be trying to reverse and move upward.

Interestingly the top performing stocks in the Copernicus systems were MCD and AAPL…in that order.

I sold UGL this week for a modest gain. I was not sure where gold was going for the short term and levered ETF’s can move fast. I could revisit this again

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 7.65 %

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 4.38 %

SH    - 2.59 %

SDS  - 8.07 %

GLD + 3.02%

SDS has triggered a downward sell point. I will give it a little more room to see what shakes out. I also have to remind myself that I bought this and the two SH purchases for protection so the loss is offset by other gains

Have a great week

No Where To Run, No Where to Hide

Actually this is not true but simply a way to introduce my thoughts on the market after this weekend review. There are plenty of places to hide and cash may the best but being short has been a good option lately …so has gold.

Speaking of gold, guess what has out performed gold for the last 6 months and greatly out paced the Dow?

Take a look at this chart here

Nothing against Sturm, Ruger & Company, probably a great company, they are profitable, they are paying a nice dividend, but it is sort of disgusting when it takes a firearms manufacturer to beat just about everything you can think of and soundly trounce the Dow.

Last week was pretty nasty for the Dow; take a look back at the opening drop on Thursday and no sign of a bounce on Friday (Chart)  

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues in their Current Outlook with: Market in Correction. 

Copernicus Systems continues to solidly point to the trend being “Down” and to be short.

The top performing ETF’s in the Copernicus systems were GLD (of course) and EWJ.

I have been noticing EWJ, an ETF for Japan, climbing in the rankings so I took a look at the chart. Nothing good here yet  (see chart), just better than the other ETF’s

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL - .08%, falling from last week to finally show a loss

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    +.32%

SH    +2.2%

SDS  +1.25%

GLD +4.46%

UGL +9.0%This after being badly down last week ( -7.08%) last week

So there are places to hide, such as funds that short the market and of course gold

I still believe there are opportunities ahead but that could take time. Many are seeing the worst of this downturn is yet ahead, perhaps we are just getting started in this downturn. One source points to October before we see a bottom. I will be watching and hopefully learning along the way!

Have a great week

Down on Monday, up on Tuesday, down on Wednesday, up big on Thursday and sideways on Friday…where is this going???

Last week I asked “Will we see a continued drop on Monday?”

We will did and as this (See Chart) shows we were down on Monday, up on Tuesday, down on Wednesday, up big on Thursday and sideways on Friday.

After the rally on Thursday I began to wonder, was that the bottom… it is up from here? If it was heading up what was driving it?

Well no one really knows what the market will do in the future, so what can we see from recent history?

Looking back we can see that on the road to the low of 6443 on March 6, 2009 we saw multiple “rallies”. This was on a decline from the all time market high of 14165 on October 9, 2007 (remember that?). In short order the Dow lost 54.5% with these rallies present. Well, it did not dwell at the bottom for long at all but in a mere 3 weeks it was up 20% and by the end of 2009 it was up 60%. See Chart

So back to the question, have we seen the market bottom? I think we will see additional rallies same as before as the market appears to have been oversold. Businesses are doing well, but overall what would drive a new bull market now???

With the historically volatile months of Sept-Oct-Nov just ahead we will see the future soon enough.

Here is my conclusion: Based on a recap of history we could well see additional rallies, but the trend is still downward at this time.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues in their Current Outlook with: Market in Correction. 

Copernicus Systems is solidly pointing to the trend being “Down” and to be short. I looked carefully for some stocks and  ETF’s here and just did not see anything of interest

Last week I did sell AMZN and BIDU  (both are up from when I sold them) and I held onto AAPL

I scrambled to get neutral to cover illiquid holdings and bought SH (twice) and SDS (a 2x-leveraged inverse of the same). I also bought gold, first GLD and then the 2x leveraged UGL none of these are doing well but they are there for protection …to make me neutral.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL + 5.80%

ETF's for a trade are:

SH   -2.20%

SH   -3.99%

SDS -1.34%

GLD -2.65%

UGL -7.08%

As bad as these look they are offset.…and after this weekend review I actually may add to them.

Looking ahead I combed though the dividend payer stocks that I own, many of these held up nicely such as KO, but drops were seen in DOV, GWW, XOM, WM and CSX. These are great companies and if the market recovers they could gain 15% quickly, but it is just too soon to add more. With nothing to buy for this group, I should add protection here as well

I am not optimistic that a full recovery will occur soon and quick drops are still possible as many are on the edge…but opportunities are ahead in the future

Have a great week!

Will we see a continued drop on Monday?

Last week I wrote, “Will we see a stock market rally next week?” Well it did rally briefly at the opening, but quickly turned down and into a mess.

With the downward slide all week see chart and the US debt rating down grade on Friday we have to wonder what might we see on Monday, but it will be here soon enough to see.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) in their Current Outlook says: Market in Correction. 

No need to “interpret” Copernicus Systems this week. It is clearly guiding to sell or even to go short. I quote: “all systems across this website are now lined up emphatically negative--with vigor”

Copernicus Systems points to some an interesting selling divergence confirmations pointing to an even lower market in the future. 

I also found it interesting that a wise friend had earlier in the week pointed to a Dow Theory sell signal being generated; first with a non-confirmation between the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials generating a warning signal and then confirmation of a sell signal with the two falling together below previous lows.

Speaking of selling, I ended up selling both XLE and OIH last week after they zoomed past my downside sell points. .

I have not finished my determination as to what to do on Monday, but selling all of the stocks listed below seems possible and buying some protection such as SH and/or SDS to cover illiquid holdings and dividend stocks seems prudent.

SH is an inverse of the S & P 500 and SDS is a 2x-leveraged inverse of the same

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN –6.39 %

BIDU  -2.70%

AAPL + 4.85%

ETF's for a trade are:

none

Have a great week!