Uncertainties Caused a Round of Profit Taking Last Week … What Will Happen This Week?

What a week last week was!

I was really concerned when the Middle East dominated the news, the profit taking began and I wondered where the market might end up. Those concerns seems to have settled down, so we can now watch and see if the uptrend resumes...Why Not?

My interpretation of Copernicus Systems is to be long in the Market. I continue to see a lot of stocks of interest. Some of these still look a little paused, but I will look further at: CTXS, NTES, and DD.  CVX keeps popping up and looks good to me, but I already have that in my dividend portfolio....would it be silly to also own it for a trade?

IBD has understandably changed their Market Outlook to "Uptrend Under Pressure"

Last week was a little wake-up call about the need to be prudent, so I will be in a "protect capital mode" for the near term and may not make any purchases

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

KLAC up 6.3 %

CMG  up .51 % Looking a Little battered after last week

EMC up 9.04 % Held up fairly well

AAPL   up 9.83 %....actually seemed to find its footing last week


The leveraged ETF's for a trade:

BGU  up 3.35 %

AGQ  up 3.34 %  This is a leveraged silver ETF. It was added during a time of concern (panic) but I will let the sell rules take it from here

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil ETF's),  which of course are doing fine and  XLF which held on.

FAS was sold last week when it fell out of the bottom of the box (I do have losses)

SOXL was sold on Monday but due to it going out of the top of the box...a little late but still picked up a 14.2 % gain. It had been up over 20% so I held on to this one too long. This is an interesting ETF, I see it is already moving up again...Hmm

Have a great week week!

A couple of Nicolaus Darvas quotes about stocks are posted this week

Midweek Addendum Tuesday February 22

I sure did not like to see this drop today, but in one way of thinking it was just an overdue correction that was finally sparked by Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi clinging to power in spite of the protests and unfortunately this erupting in violence against the protesters. It is hard to see this lasting too long but likely the nimble traders decided to protect their profits with some selling. I am not a nimble trader by any means. I did have a couple of ETF's set up to sell at the market open this morning. I was not happy with the opening price but by the end of the day the prices were much lower.

What will happen tomorrow, could be more of the same, could be a recovery as traders try to pick up some of the low prices of today. I sure don’t know, but we will know soon enough and logically in time the Market will continue its move upward

Trying to find some good news the Dow was at least going the right direction by the end of the day

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI+Basic+Chart&t=1d
 

Nicolas Darvas was a world famous dancer years ago that built a fortune in the Market ...starting with very little capital and executing trades while he traveled via telegraph. A couple of quotes are:

1. I  must not fall in love with stocks when they rise, I must not get angry when they fall

2. Keep rigidly to the investing rules you carve out for yourself 

The quotes are not verbatim, but they are helpful reminders..at least for me

 

The Market continues to shrug off the Middle East unrest...other than Oil Still Rules, perhaps this is a result of the unrest

Copernicus Systems continues to be clear about being to be long in the Market for again another week.I again saw many stock of interest until I looked closely at the charts which seem to be a little paused. Some that will be investigated further are:

BMC 

JNPR

DD

IBD continues to seem to agree citing "Market in Confirmed Uptrend"

My "Stocks for a Trade" are:

KLAC up 8.34 %

CMG  up 5.28 %

EMC up 10.17 %

AAPL   up 10.59%....I am getting a little worried about its recent direction but hopefully it will resume its upward trend soon

The highly leveraged ETF's for a trade:

BGU  up 3.35%

FAS up 1.75%

SOXL up 20.77 %   ....Guess I need to follow the rules on this one ...at least take some off the table

For normal ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I still have both  OIH and XLE. and  XLF these continue to look fine.


I was able to do some work on Dividend Stocks, hope to post the early results soon. I really need to do some portfolio reorganization and clean up....it is a mess. The blog is helping me make better investments (or the rising tide  is just lifting all ships) now I just need to manage things better


Markets closed tomorrow in honor of President's Day. Hope you have a great week

Still looking up...perhaps even better.

The markets continue to perform well. I try not to make forward looking predictions but if this continues......   

My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems continues to be clear signals to be long in the Markets and I once again saw many stocks of interest (too many to list for now and I'm not sure if I can pick any additional up at this time).  IBD continues to seem to agree citing "Market in Confirmed Uptrend"

I incorrectly reported my "stocks for a trade last week" as I had earlier sold off MON and ARBA.

During the week and I did sell  IPand  JPM and picked up KLAC, but also CMG which had caught my eye and I did not mention last week

So that left me with:    KLAC, CMG   EMC,  and good old  AAPL by the end of the week


All are doing well, some up rapidly thus far:

KLAC up 1.91 %

CMG  up an amazing 8.75%

EMC up 9.61 %

AAPL  my longest term holding of the group by far up 12.57%

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I still have both  OIH and XLE. along with  XLF and SOXL .. these all look fine for now.

I am considering taking some small positions in  some 3X leveraged ETF's: FAS which is Financial Services and BGU  which is magnifies the Russell 1000 which is large cap stocks. These are very risky but these are two areas that have shown life and could continue to do so.

That's all for tonight

Things are looking up...but remember know one really know the future of the Markets

This week on Tuesday  we saw a really nice gain and Friday a modest gain. I really like this because in spite of the unknowns, (which the Markets hates) the market was propelled higher. Likely this was due to good earnings this week by various companies.

I must confess I did not follow the Markets or business news much this week due to a lack of power at home which left me with hand crank radio for the local news

My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems is that we are now getting clear signals to be long in the Markets and I saw many stocks of interest.

IBD also seems to agree citing "  Market in Confirmed Uptrend" 

I am now left with six stocks for a trade:  MON,  IP,  JPM,  EMC,  ARBA and  AAPL.

ARBA is doing very well, APPL and EMC are doing  fine, IP is okay and I have a modest loss in JPM.

The stocks I saw today of interest were: SOHU, KLAC, SANM, BIDU, EBAY, EXTR and OTEX

I may swap out of the IP and JPM in favor of perhaps KLAC, SANM or SOHU, will decide later

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I still have both  OIH and XLE. along with  XLF and SOXL .. these all look fine for now



Well that is a brief review for today , Hope your team wins tonight

Wednesday Addendum:

I did sell IP  and  JPM

Now buying KLAC and CMG

A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships

For the past two years this market has been on a steady rise, going from less than 7000 to touch 12,000. See Here.

On Friday we had a modest drop which I think was based on the fears of the unknown in Egypt (Markets hate unknowns...especially on Fridays)

This was a good reminder that for the last two years if you were trading in the markets you could almost do no wrong and be led to think that you knew what you were doing. Friday was a sobering reminder that the market direction can and does change and it can be humbling when it does.

Some viewed this as a buying opportunity, some jumped ship.

What will I do????

Well...IBD's Outlook is " Up Trend Under Pressure" and my interpretation of the advice given by the Copernicus Systems is that we are getting mixed signals at this time but it is not time to go to cash...at least I do not plan to do so this week

The group of seven stocks that I have for a trades have done well so far.


The seven were : AMAT,  MON,  IP,  JPM,  EMC,  ARBA and  AAPL.

I sold AMAT last week based on the Box Theory and I will sell ARBA  on Monday  based on this plan .

Last week I did not see any stocks of interest. This week I see plenty so I am taking some comfort in that but will wait until we see how this weeks events unfold and plan to hold the remaining  five of the seven and see if they can find some traction

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I did sell  HHH and picked up  XLF and SOXL

I still have what may be too much oil with both  OIH and XLE.   These could be negatively effected by Mid-Eastern events. One friend is picking up Canadian Oil stocks which could be safer

Regards to all and have a good week.

Addendum 

A little change of plans on Monday morning. I will be selling some UWM  at the open this morning  (Monday). I have been seeing a rotation out of the small cap stocks, and this one is leveraged. Leaving it will be my move to a more conservative portfolio 

Market Seems A Little Uncertain (but perhaps it's just me)

I am not sure what to think of the Market this week.The Market can be humbling or rewarding, don't know which it will be

I did not see any stocks that seemed interesting  to pick-up for a trade, nor do I have any that I am ready to sell. Collectively the  six stock stocks that I have acquired over the last few weeks are doing okay and it looks like I will let them decide when they need to be sold, more on that here: When to Buy and Sell

The six are: AMAT,  MON,  IP,  JPM,  EMC,  ARBA and  AAPL.

Not seeing any new stocks of interest sort of tempers my enthusiasm. So does the  Investor Business Daily Market Pulse which says: Up Trend Under Pressure. Based on this I will not be making any additions on Monday.

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I  will be selling HHH in favor of  XLF...but I will wait to add this later in the week, pending what occurs     

I plan to stand pat on the general Market ETF's  and oil related ETF's that still seem to be working.

I will not be exiting at this point and a little dip would be normal and should be expected at some point.

Regards to all and have a good week.

Here is a link to a Copernicus page, whose system has been most helpful. It shows how their Worldwide ETF system compares to Warren Buffet since 2002 when it was first made available. It first shows how Warren Buffet compares to the DJIA, a second page show the Worldwide system compares to Buffet...pretty incredible, not only in gains but I really like the help offered to cut the losses of a downturn

http://www.advanced-stock-selection.com/tip88.htm

MIDWEEK
1-26-11 Sold DIG this morning, perhaps a little early but still have OIH and XLE to participate in what may be a continued upward march for oil related things,  bought a little SOXL which is a 3X leveraged semiconductor ETF

1-27-11 did not pick up XLF as planned, now looking at the leveraged version FAS but will wait for next week. I just have too large a percentage in oil related stuff; time to diversify a little.

Will be selling the AMAT at the opening....the goal has been achieved. It may well go further but don't want to be a pig

Oil, Oil, Oil, but is the Market Getting Stronger?

A little definition

Briefly ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) are investment funds that can be traded like stocks. There are many different types. Some track Market Indices, such as  DIA tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow)

They can track various Commodities, Bonds, Currencies, etc.

Leveraged versions can produce 2X times what it is tracking (which can be twice as profitable or generate twice the loss), a leveraged version of the DIA (the Dow) is DDM.

There are also inverse ETF’s set up to do just the opposite. An inverse of the DIA is DOG. There is a leveraged inverse of DIA and that is the DDX

… there are enough ETF’s to make your head swim, but I LIKE ETF’s.

I much prefer them to mutual funds due to the flexibly of moving in and out as much as I feel I need to, when I like, without restrictions.

You can see what ETF’s hold by going to the Yahoo or other finance page, enter the symbol and take a looking at “Holdings”…. a good idea before you buy

You can also look at the performance of the ETF by the looking at its chart just like a stock…another good idea before buying

THIS WEEK

This week’s review of ETF’s still favors oil, such as OIH, XLE and its near twin IYE. I really like DIG, which is a leveraged Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index. (Tracked by IYE)

For Market Indices ETF’s, right now I like UWM, QLD, and RSU in that order. These are sure not likely to be long-term investments but they are working well right now.

For stocks this week I am looking at: EMC, (EMC Corporation develops, delivers, and supports information infrastructure) JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co., a large bank) GE (General Electric Company) and IP (International Paper Company)

I am holding and will likely continue to hold for next week the following:

 APPL (Apple)

ARBA (Ariba, Inc, provides collaborative business commerce solutions for buying and selling goods and services)

AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc. provides nanomanufacturing technology for the semiconductors etc)

MON (Monsanto Company, provides agricultural products for farmers)

So where is the market heading?

Investor Business Daily’s Current Outlook is “Market in confirmed up trend” …and I am getting more confident in the Market