Ominous!

Last week I pointed out we have seen the DJIA drop almost 1000 points, it was actually 910

This week we closed at 12,455. So after a couple of cycles during the week we are now down 824 points for the month.

Well that is actually up for the week. What is so ominous? 

Everything in my weekend review was ominous, both IBD and Copernicus Systems.

I also saw a rotation of what I consider to be less-than-stellar Global ETF’s jump to the top rankings. These are ETF’s with holdings in Australia, Taiwan, Canada and Japan. 

I just don’t see justification for this. My thought is that with so many ETF’s diving in the rotation, these I consider to currently be less-than-stellar have been “pushed” to the top by this action. 

Something simply has to be on top, just as something has to be on the bottom.

At the bottom of the rankings are EPI (India) and EWZ (Brazil) and dropping in concert is FXI (China). 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.745%.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to have: Market in Correction 

Copernicus Systems: Is still calling for a short in the market, now with much more unanimity. Moneys flows are still down 3/3…but I have to note an upward divergence in price

IBD 50 Top Five: 

LQDT, ALXN, GNC, SXCI, TSCO   I make note of TSCO’s entry, but now is not a time to buy

Last Week:

LQDT, SXCI, GNC, ALXN, SWI

Week Prior:

LQDT, SXCI, GNC, RGR, AAPL

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None at this time

 IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

None at this time

 ETF’s for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD (3) buys for -7.36%

 

SH -1.49%

What will I do?

I may add more SH which is an inverse ETF of the S&P500. I never seem to do well with shorts, but this is being bought to neutralize some illiquid mutual funds.

I also bought a little SDS  last week as a part of my dividend payer portfolio. I may also add to this.

The plan for the dividend portfolio is to buy good dividend payers which are profitable companies that grow their dividends and grow their stock price. In down times I do not sell them I just hold them and get paid the dividend while waiting. These stocks do get sold when they fail to make a profit, fail to grow their dividend or do anything else that makes them less than stellar. But a drop in general stock price does not disqualify them. However a little cash does accumulate here, so in times like this I use it to buy a little protection or insurance.

I also try to buy good dividend payers in down times, but I wait until I see the market rising out a valley and currently it looks like descent may be ahead

I hope you have a great week.

Almost 1000 Points!

Yes we have seen the DJIA drop almost over 1000 points thus far this month.

May 1:  13,279

May 7:  13,008

May 14:12,695

Friday:  12,369

The Trend Has Been Down…this can change, but the past trend is clear.

Even the FB IPO which had high expectations went nowhere and did nothing to slow the downward trend.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

 The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.70%, still creeping lower.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to have: Market in Correction 

Copernicus Systems: Is advising to short the market. They also have some interesting predictions about some coming  DJIA lows  ...even the dates and numbers. This is based on a study of market cycles. I will not quote them here other than to say the low is predicted two weeks before the election, along with some key movements prior...and perhaps we are on track to the first one now.

IBD 50 Top Five:

LQDT, SXCI, GNC, ALXN, SWI

Last Week:

LQDT, SXCI, GNC, RGR, AAPL

Week Prior:

LQDT, RGR, SXCI, GNC, ALXN

Note to Self: When following IBD recommendations for IBD 50 stocks; follow their guidance for market conditions and sell these at least within a week of a signal of correction. This may miss some gain, but should avoid some pain.

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR  was sold this week after it fell past my sell point of an 8% loss. I hated to see this one go, perhaps all to more reason to sell it.

EBAY -7.40%, close enough, time to sell

IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

SXCI -.4.45 % this leader has fallen, time to sell.

ALXN -7.27%, time to sell

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -6.23% Gold up a tad, will continue to hold.

IBB   (2) buys for +2.20%, which I could continue with this one, but it too must go

XLY -8.41%, adios 

What will I do?

I will be selling.

Is it time to short? Well it has been for some time.

I will now take an initial short position via SH which is an inverse ETF of the S&P500. This first position is just to balance some illiquid mutual funds and partially cover some dividend payers.

I hope you have a great week.

Uncertainty Exists

Will the market continue downward, slide sideways or recover?  I have been expecting a more serious drop for some time based on predictions from those more knowledgeable at such. I have learned that I cannot predict the future, at best I can discern what the market is doing currently and I cannot do that at this time

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.84%, still creeping lower. 

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to have: Market in Correction 

Copernicus Systems: Continued  to be mixed in my opinion, but money flows are now down in 3/3 portfolios

IBD 50 Top Five:

LQDT, SXCI, GNC, RGR, AAPL

Last Week:

LQDT, RGR, SXCI, GNC, ALXN

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR  +.40% The action here, like other market leaders,  has not been good but may be turning, will give it a little more room for now

PCLN +15.29% another damaged leader. I have this at a -14.71% using the box theory…should have already sold, but will sell now and take the gain. Hope to revisit soon.

 EBAY -1.65%, has actually recovered a little

 IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

 SXCI +.19 % down a little for the past week

 ALXN -5.04%, still slumping downward.

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -6.83% Gold still dropping, perhaps time to buy more soon

IBB   (2) buys for +7.32%, doing nicely 

XLY -3.55%, still has hope

What will I do?

I will sell PCLN for now and lock in the remaining profit. Tempted to sell more but will let the box theory rules guide me for now. Buying seems out of the question, but so does shorting. Raising cash is probably a good plan for now

I hope you have a great week.

The Market Turns Again, Time for a Little Selling

Last week the IBD outlook sank; first to "Uptrend Under Pressure” and now to “Market in Correction”. 

Well that is what markets do; they rise, they fall and yet they gain over time. For the value investor and many astute traders Thursday and Friday was just a buying opportunity. For the momentum investors it is just time to watch and wait, see where this goes and what the trend truly is

This last week I did buy EBAY and XLY but did not pick-up DIS and PFE as planned and will not make further buys now until the direction is clear.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.88%, lowest in some time…hmm

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now Market in Correction as noted earlier

Copernicus Systems: rotation seen with Global now looking better than US. The Money Flows are now down in 2/3 portfolios and the other is very flat

IBD 50 Top Five: LQDT, RGR, SXCI, GNC, ALXN

Last Week: GNC, RGR, LQDT, SXCI, AAPL.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR  +7.27%, was pulled down a little, but my optimism (hope) remains strong  

PCLN +25.65%, now only (1) in the bank and I have this at a -4.35% using the box theory…will let the theory guide from here.

EBAY -4.79%, not off to a good start

IBD 50 Basket Holdings Are:

LQDT +16.61% (based on two buys) a nice pop and  just what I needed from one of these. Since it has moved to number 1 at IBD I could continue to the ride this, but it has made a gain above 15% , so selling is fine too and it is never wrong to take a little profit.

GNC -5.77% (based on two buys) I wish I had passed on this one based on my thoughts of what I observed in their stores (not much)...since I would not but it now, it is clearly time to sell.

SXCI +1.64 % turned around nicely for now

AAPL -8.15% Ouch! too much, this Apple has worm in it, likely will have to go for now.

ALXN -3.95%, this one is a nasty little pill to swallow this week, but I will take the medicine and see what develops.

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -3.24%

IBB   (2) buys for +3.41%

EWY -1.64%, recovering a little, but too little too late, adios Korea

XLY -2.09%, this one still has hope

What will I do?

I will sell LQDT, AAPL and GNC. I suspect both of the first two will be revisited. 

Also I will sell EWY. After going sideways in the rankings it has dropped this week, so time to go.

I hope you have a great week.

Less Gloating and a New Addition

I mentioned in an earlier post that I was interested in picking up a basket of stocks equally dollar weighted from the top stocks of the IBD 50. That has now happened. I have followed these for several weeks now. The top stocks include Apple and other stocks that have outperformed Apple…does this seem possible?

Jumping to explain the “Less Gloating” portion, I have taken the current Apple holdings that were bought and added to a multiple times “for a trade” and converted this a “buy and hold” (Cramer agrees with this). Some refer to this tactic as “buy and hope”, which is somewhat truthful. My attitude toward this stock has changed. Yes, we have some nice gains in Apple (now at 37%) and to continue posting this…well it is just “gloating”. This stock is now paying a dividend, and Apple continues to march their great products around the world, country-after-country with great success. I know this can fall, as all stocks are somewhat evil in this manner of behavior,  but future selling will likely not be based on chart reviews and price performance alone but also in watching their product success. Last week I was getting prepared to sell based on a continued price drop, but fortunately the price drop turned into a pop after the recent handsome earnings report. So saying all of that leads to the explanation that I won’t continue posting the gains on that lot of Apple after this.

However not to add confusion, but to based on a new beginning, I just bought Apple for a trade and this portion is indeed for a trade.

Okay back to the first conversation. The IBD Market Outlook changed to “Confirmed Up Trend” this week and I jumped in with a basket of picks from the top of the IBD 50. I have not worked out definitive “Rules” on subsequent selling and more buying, but I have some thoughts in mind and rules will follow

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.97%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now rides to: Confirmed Up Trend! as noted earlier

Copernicus Systems seems to be more clear to be long in the market, (but still not 100% in all systems and I have great respect for Copernicus), Money Flows are now up in 2/3 portfolios .

IBD 50 Top Five: GNC, RGR, LQDT, SXCI, AAPL.

What will I do?

  I hope to buy more stocks and another ETF!

I am looking at stocks: EBAY, DIS and PFE and XLY, for the ETF, which seems to make sense as consumer confidence increases

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR  +11.05%, rebound continues

PCLN +30.15%, popping, now (2) in the bank and just into the second box .15

Both of these fine companies may join Apple and convert to buy and hold (at least Priceline which as a superb business model) and I should point out they are also high on the IBD 50.

Recent Additions this week from the IBD 50 are:

LQDT +3.65%

GNC +.57% (I almost passed on this one as I never see any traffic in their stores at the malls)

SXCI -1.41%

AAPL -2.01% (I know, I know, but at least I am not gloating)

ALXN -.34%

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -2.08% and I guess this is actually a buy and hold but it will stay here for now

IBB   (2) buys for +6.98% as the rebound continues.

EWY -.15%, recovering a little.

I hope you have a great week.

“Feeling” less cautious, but still cautious.

I’m not sure what to make of drops in Apple and Priceline. 

Is Apple beginning to cycle or channel? It’s hard to see it actually dropping with such great products and profits and a future that looks bright. Box Theory will still give it some room but further drops will command a sell. 

What is Priceline doing? Is it falling in sympathy to Apple? It will have plenty of room to run. 

Ruger is doing just the opposite. Is it a contrarian? It is one of the few I would consider buying more of, but buying now would be doing so against the IBD indicator

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.97%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now drops to: Market In Correction!

Copernicus Systems is still showing to be long in the market (but not 100% in all systems), Money Flows are still down in 3/3 portfolios, but there is a slight divergence with one portfolio rising in price

IBD 50 Top Five: LQDT, GNC, SXCI, AAPL, ALXN.   Some migration taking place here with LQDT jumping in and to the top , SXCI jumping in and RGR and PCLN being pushed out of the top five. Both of these new entries are interesting.

What will I do?

I would like to buy more RGR, but I took a larger position than normal for my first entry so perhaps I will stand pat for now rather than trying to swim against the tide.

  
Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  (4) buys for +30.24% so (2) in the bank and in the box .24 …wonder where this is going? Tentatively I will let it drop 8% below this box and then it will be saying it’s time to go

RGR  +7.63%, nice rebound…should I buy more?
PCLN +21.23%, dropping, but still (1) in the bank and in the box 5.23

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -3.20%

IBB   (2) buys for +3.53%, nice rebound this week

EWY -1.53% still watching, but will give it some room…why not it’s Korea

I hope you have a great week.