Will we see a stock market rally next week?

The US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling continues. The real objective by the conservatives was and is to cut spending. Having this unresolved seems to have stymied the Market, which does not like unknowns. Looking at some daily charts during the week I sense that the market wants to rally a bit. If this is correct the market could rally when the agreements are finalized …assuming they are. I don't know how much, perhaps just back to the top of its recent trading range.

In regard to having this go unresolved, Boehner and Republicans have won on policy, forcing a national conversation about debt and pushing the President to focus on spending cuts and drop demands for new revenue (taxes). If unresolved Obama could go down as the president who lost the country's triple-A credit rating, and Boehner as the House speaker who let it happen…so this sure seems likely to get resolved.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) predictably changed their Current Outlook on Wednesday.

It is now: Market in Correction. 

IBD goes on to say:  “ It could open the door to a rally, or it could be judged an irrelevant kicking of the can down the road. There is no way to know in advance”.  This is certainly true but I feel the rally is more likely.

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be short,  but it is a little mixed.

Energy ETF’s still look good to me, both XLE and OIH. I took initial positions in both of these this week, thinking of them as a bit of a “black gold” hedge.

I am halfway though my mid year adjustment on dividend stocks. I sold CFR, CIM and SWK. I have not yet done the buying part but at some point I will be buying CSX, PX, XOM, BDX, and SJM. 

If you are interested in more on this last week I discussed how I evaluate these and so far so good.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN +2.76 %

BIDU  +8.40

AAPL + 9.58

I like Apple....and they have more cash than the US " Apple's quarterly financial report shows that the company now has $76.4 billion in reserve cash, while the Treasury Department is sitting on just $73.7 billion" ...go AAPL go!

ETF's for a trade are:

OIH – .23%

XLE –2.86

Have a great week!