Monday, May 30, 2011

A Busy Memorial Day Weekend ....

 Thursday Addendum: 

That was a surprise as yesterday the market turned sour and had a nasty day with it opening down and continuing down all day. 

A 2% loss in general and discouraging economic news is cited as the reason. This quickly turned IBD's Outlook back to Market in Correction. 

Unfortunately for me, I bought some stocks at the opening, least it looks unfortunate this morning. I will post the details of this in the weekend review. 

What to do now? ....follow the box theory:  When to Buy and Sell and The Box Theory

Wednesday Addendum:  Tuesday's follow-through rally in higher volume has changed IBD's outlook to "Market in Confirmed Uptrend" ...but I still want to be cautious as they point out the market is and can expected to be choppy in the third year of a bull market.

I would like to add to the ETF positions, but may wait a bit, have been wanting to pick up AMGN and AXP, perhaps a good time for that, but what about LULU and isn't silver moving again...more thought required

A Busy Memorial Day, but not to busy to reflect and be thankful for those that have done so much in service for our country.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues their Current Outlook: Market in Correction.

I continue to watch the top stocks in the IBD 50, but will hold off from adding any positions for individual stocks until the "Correction" is over.

 LULU as been number 1 in the IBD 50 for a long time ….and why not, a very popular trend.

Monday Addendum:   IBD notes:
On Friday, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) was a notable loser among top-rated stocks. The seller of high-end workout clothing lost 2% in fast trade. It finished under its 10-week moving average for the week — the first time that's happened since September. Lululemon lost 6% in strong volume on Thursday, as it was hit by a downgrade to "underperform" by FBR Capital Markets.
My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems is to see mixed signals, but the one I am currently focused on is to be long the market. I will not very long but will continue with some ETF’s in a “half position” fashion as will be explained below

Last week I said I would take initial positions in  IBB and HHH and possibly follow with EWY and EWG . I did not do this on Monday as is my usual practice but later in the week and I picked up all four of the ETF’s in half of the amounts that I had allocated for this… I will not add to these positions yet, but will simply hold

A number of stocks continue to look good. I will not list them all, but AMGN and AXP highlighted last week continue to move up in rankings, so I am interested…but only watching for now.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None, Nada

 ETF's for a trade are:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

GLD 6.68%, second purchase 3.03% …helped with a nice gain for the week
EWY 3.92%. …very nice start for the first week
EWG 1.00%

Normal ETF's:
 IBB  .31%
HHH  -1.57% …an initial loss, never nice to see , but I will be patient for now

Have a great week.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Sabbatical is over...back to is good

Monday Morning Addendum:  With the futures showing a much lower opening I will hold off on the plan to take initial positions in  IBB and HHH ...perhaps later after things settle down and the direction is more clear. I am a momentum investor not a value investor and this momentum is going the wrong way for now.

Well the sabbatical was nice, but now it is time to get back to work with stocks and ETF’s…time to get them speaking to me again.

In my last post I see I was not clear as to what I was going to do,  but for sabbatical I sold out of all of the stocks and ETF’s I was holding except for GLD (gold). I sold: SLW , BIIB , USO , AGQ , IBB ,  RSU ,  OIH  and XLE.

I was not going to watch the market for a couple of weeks and I did not want to let gains turn into losses. I had some nice gains in the energy related ETF’s and in silver, but now it is time to start with a clean slate.

As noted I did not sell out of dividend paying stocks…. these are my “bonds” and they are not bought to trade. I don’t discuss these much in the blog as I typically don’t trade them… I actually try not to watch them too closely, I just let them pay their dividends, hope they grow their dividends and grow in value over time. I review these every quarter to make sure they are still profitable companies and that they are still paying their dividends, if not I sell them. I do a more in depth review of my dividend stocks about once a year to see if I can identify better choices.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) notes in their Current Outlook: Market in Correction. They repeatedly point out that when this occurs it is not a good time to take new positions…. good conservative advice.

Some of the top stocks in the IBD 50 look interesting LULU, ULTA, FOSL and APKT, although they dropped a bit on Friday. I will be watching these; perhaps buying a basket of all of them makes sense.

My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems is to be long in the market, but to do it conservatively.

Energy ETF’s such as  OIH, XLE.and IYE are dropping in ranking.

 IBB (Biotech) HHH (Internet), EWY (Korea), EWG (Germany) are either looking good in their rankings or they are simply rising in their positions of rank.

I will take initial positions in  IBB and HHH  and possibly follow with EWY and EWG  ….for some reason when I have owned these Korean and German ETF’s it has never been for very long…they always get quickly replaced with something better...I don't know why

A number of stocks look good to me: AMZN, CTXS, IAC, INSP, SYMC, AMGN, BMC, DELL, INTC, AXP and  UTX…in particular AMGN and AXP but I will hold off from any new stock positions until the market direction is more clear for a momentum investor such as myself….but I really like it when a number of stocks look good so I will be ready.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

None, Nada

 ETF's for a trade are:

GLD 5.11%, second purchase 1.56% …down a bit

Normal ETF's: (this is for ETF’s  I buy from the review of the Copernicus systems).  IBB and HHH will soon go here

But for now: None

Have a great week.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

In Again, Now Out Again

Thursday Midweek Addition: As a result of the market close on Wednesday Investor Business Daily now has their outlook to " Market in Correction Pressure" . They note that the third year of a bull market is often choppy.....and choppy it is

Wednesday Midweek Addition: On Tuesday the Dow was up a tad but the other US stock exchanges  were down ....and down with increased volume. This has caused Investor Business Daily to switch their outlook to " Market Under Pressure"

This was a good week in the Market for me, very good indeed. However this Market commands lot of attention, something I will not have available for the next couple of weeks…therefore I will be selling out and going to the sidelines for a few weeks. Cash is good if you don’t have time to be nimble.

This may also be a good time for a little market sabbatical as I “sense” a bit of rotation going on. Perhaps oil is losing its lube, but likely not, more likely other sectors are just getting stronger. A few weeks may bring clarity.

I will not be selling out of dividend paying stocks…. these are my “bonds” and they are not bought to trade. Also, it appears in this weeks review those types  stock are getting even stronger. If I can find some time I will spend it trying to add to existing positions in dividend paying stocks.

I will sure say adios to silver, way too much speculation here for a conservative investor....but gold, I just don’t see a reason to leave gold. Will we stop printing money? I don’t think so. Therefore gold still seems to be a great holding to me.

What did I see in the weekend review?

IBD’s Market Current Outlook still shows “Market in Confirmed Uptrend” 

My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems is to be long...but I this is where I sense the rotation mentioned earlier. Some fine companies that looked good to me were: AMGN, ELNK, EBAY, AXP, BA, BMY, HON, IBM, JNJ, MMM.

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

SLW – 3.68%

BIIB – 1.65 %

ETF's for a trade are:

USO 11.12 %, nice, thank you

GLD 8.59%, second purchase 4.92%

AGQ 22.03%, Hi Ho Silver, but away for me …and thank you very much

IBB 1.95%

 RSU 4.05%

Normal ETF's:

 OIH 25.11%, no reason to be a pig, time to sell, hope to see you again

 XLE. 18.21, ditto here

Have a great week.