Sunday, January 30, 2011

A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships

For the past two years this market has been on a steady rise, going from less than 7000 to touch 12,000. See Here.

On Friday we had a modest drop which I think was based on the fears of the unknown in Egypt (Markets hate unknowns...especially on Fridays)

This was a good reminder that for the last two years if you were trading in the markets you could almost do no wrong and be led to think that you knew what you were doing. Friday was a sobering reminder that the market direction can and does change and it can be humbling when it does.

Some viewed this as a buying opportunity, some jumped ship.

What will I do????

Well...IBD's Outlook is " Up Trend Under Pressure" and my interpretation of the advice given by the Copernicus Systems is that we are getting mixed signals at this time but it is not time to go to least I do not plan to do so this week

The group of seven stocks that I have for a trades have done well so far.


I sold AMAT last week based on the Box Theory and I will sell ARBA  on Monday  based on this plan .

Last week I did not see any stocks of interest. This week I see plenty so I am taking some comfort in that but will wait until we see how this weeks events unfold and plan to hold the remaining  five of the seven and see if they can find some traction

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I did sell  HHH and picked up  XLF and SOXL

I still have what may be too much oil with both  OIH and XLE.   These could be negatively effected by Mid-Eastern events. One friend is picking up Canadian Oil stocks which could be safer

Regards to all and have a good week.


A little change of plans on Monday morning. I will be selling some UWM  at the open this morning  (Monday). I have been seeing a rotation out of the small cap stocks, and this one is leveraged. Leaving it will be my move to a more conservative portfolio 

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Market Seems A Little Uncertain (but perhaps it's just me)

I am not sure what to think of the Market this week.The Market can be humbling or rewarding, don't know which it will be

I did not see any stocks that seemed interesting  to pick-up for a trade, nor do I have any that I am ready to sell. Collectively the  six stock stocks that I have acquired over the last few weeks are doing okay and it looks like I will let them decide when they need to be sold, more on that here: When to Buy and Sell


Not seeing any new stocks of interest sort of tempers my enthusiasm. So does the  Investor Business Daily Market Pulse which says: Up Trend Under Pressure. Based on this I will not be making any additions on Monday.

For ETF's, (Exchange Traded Funds), I  will be selling HHH in favor of  XLF...but I will wait to add this later in the week, pending what occurs     

I plan to stand pat on the general Market ETF's  and oil related ETF's that still seem to be working.

I will not be exiting at this point and a little dip would be normal and should be expected at some point.

Regards to all and have a good week.

Here is a link to a Copernicus page, whose system has been most helpful. It shows how their Worldwide ETF system compares to Warren Buffet since 2002 when it was first made available. It first shows how Warren Buffet compares to the DJIA, a second page show the Worldwide system compares to Buffet...pretty incredible, not only in gains but I really like the help offered to cut the losses of a downturn

1-26-11 Sold DIG this morning, perhaps a little early but still have OIH and XLE to participate in what may be a continued upward march for oil related things,  bought a little SOXL which is a 3X leveraged semiconductor ETF

1-27-11 did not pick up XLF as planned, now looking at the leveraged version FAS but will wait for next week. I just have too large a percentage in oil related stuff; time to diversify a little.

Will be selling the AMAT at the opening....the goal has been achieved. It may well go further but don't want to be a pig

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Oil, Oil, Oil, but is the Market Getting Stronger?

A little definition

Briefly ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) are investment funds that can be traded like stocks. There are many different types. Some track Market Indices, such as  DIA tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the Dow)

They can track various Commodities, Bonds, Currencies, etc.

Leveraged versions can produce 2X times what it is tracking (which can be twice as profitable or generate twice the loss), a leveraged version of the DIA (the Dow) is DDM.

There are also inverse ETF’s set up to do just the opposite. An inverse of the DIA is DOG. There is a leveraged inverse of DIA and that is the DDX

… there are enough ETF’s to make your head swim, but I LIKE ETF’s.

I much prefer them to mutual funds due to the flexibly of moving in and out as much as I feel I need to, when I like, without restrictions.

You can see what ETF’s hold by going to the Yahoo or other finance page, enter the symbol and take a looking at “Holdings”…. a good idea before you buy

You can also look at the performance of the ETF by the looking at its chart just like a stock…another good idea before buying


This week’s review of ETF’s still favors oil, such as OIH, XLE and its near twin IYE. I really like DIG, which is a leveraged Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index. (Tracked by IYE)

For Market Indices ETF’s, right now I like UWM, QLD, and RSU in that order. These are sure not likely to be long-term investments but they are working well right now.

For stocks this week I am looking at: EMC, (EMC Corporation develops, delivers, and supports information infrastructure) JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co., a large bank) GE (General Electric Company) and IP (International Paper Company)

I am holding and will likely continue to hold for next week the following:

 APPL (Apple)

ARBA (Ariba, Inc, provides collaborative business commerce solutions for buying and selling goods and services)

AMAT (Applied Materials, Inc. provides nanomanufacturing technology for the semiconductors etc)

MON (Monsanto Company, provides agricultural products for farmers)

So where is the market heading?

Investor Business Daily’s Current Outlook is “Market in confirmed up trend” …and I am getting more confident in the Market

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Market Direction?

IBD continues to see “ Market in a confirmed uptrend”.

I plan to add to the general market participation with a little UWM

This week….more of the same for ETF’s. The ones of most interest to hold continue to be oil and energy related: OIH, XLE and DIG.  I may add to these positions, 

For stocks I continue to hold AAPL and ARBA, but have a loss in ARBA, will let this go a little further and sell if it does not turn. MON and AMAT look like good choices this week.

JPM is interesting, but think I will pass for now. 

I need to do a review of dividend paying stocks but did not find the time this weekend

So what is the market really going to do????

Can you time the market? I cannot but I follow the Copernicus Systems that does an extraordinary job based on what the market is doing (my interpretation) via a propriety analysis of money flow and other measures

Copernicus ranks the ETF’s and stocks followed each week and this is what I primarily review each week. Here is a link to the site. A free trial subscription is available.

Have a great week

Sunday, January 2, 2011

January 2, 2011

Weekend Stock Review: IBD bolstered my confidence with "Market in a Confirmed Uptrend", but I still am prepared for a change. 
Oil and energy still continue to look good via OIH, DIG and XLE. Stocks such as JBL and JDSU (that I missed) continue to look good as does ARBA that I continue to hold. GE and MON are looking interesting.
...this morning I decided to start legging back into the general market with some RSU a 2X leveraged version of the SPY