Unknowns are Gone…Market Soars

The Side Step was brief. With the big unknown of when the taper begins out of the way and a Fed promise of low rates for some time the market did indeed soar and I think the future looks good IHMO

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.87 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is back to: Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows:  all positive, but continuing to trend downward

My trip to the side was okay, I thought it would be good to look at the results, and here is a summary of profits and losses:

CMG -7% fortunately only a small initial position

YHOO +7.5%

PCLN +2.8%

DAL +3.4%

GOOG +2.4%

CRM -13.6% again only a small initial position

NFLX +6.4%

AMZN +1.2%

BIIB -6.6%

FLT -.43%

IWM +11.5%

IBB +6.4%

I did not sell QQQ and HAIN…fortunately

Cramer Basket

HAIN +5.34%

ETF’s:

QQQ +9.75% 

What will I do?

Looking at the results this year it looks like I will outperform the market for the stocks that I held long term in my dividends payers and growers and probably underperform the market with the stocks I traded. I am looking forward to 2014 being a good year for the market, so I have been thinking about a new approach that will involve less trading. More later.

 

I hope you have a great week.

And now…Time for a little sidestep

A fictional Texas politician once said:

   Ooh I love to dance a little sidestep, now they see me now they don't
   I've come and gone and, ooh I love to sweep around the wide step, 
   Cut a little swathe and lead the people on

Well I am not leading anyone on but it’s time to step begin a little step to the sidelines. Perhaps not for long but selling all of the remaining positions will net out a modest gain.

IDB notes: “The coming week could be decisive. The last full week before Christmas has brought fast trade in three of the past four years ….Clarity from the Fed could add fuel”

Clarity would be a good thing.

When the bond buying began the Fed stated the goal was decreasing unemployment to 6.5%, if true to this it will continue…but they could now cite changes in outlook being justified due to Congress showing they are capable of action…but no one has clarity yet!

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is 2.87 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has switched to: Uptrend Under Pressure, but notes “Despite the bleak distribution count, there appears to be some underlying bullishness at work” citing some positive chart action

Copernicus Systems: Short in my interpretation

Moneys Flows: all positive, but continuing to trend downward

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

CMG -6.88%

YHOO +7.21%

Cramer Basket

PCLN +2.95%

DAL +1.07%

GOOG +2.43%

CRM -12.46% I cannot blame Cramer for this as he did warn it might drop and drop it did.

NFLX +6.27%

AMZN +1.06%

HAIN -1.20%

Copernicus Basket

FSLR Sold

TRIP Sold

BIIB -7.21%

IBD Basket

FLT -.51%

ETF’s:

QQQ +7.66% 

IWM +11.18%

XLI Sold

IBB +6.61%

What will I do?

Selling, but I am by no means shouting the sky is falling, just doing a little side step

I hope you have a great week.

Sometimes Bad Timing is better than No Timing

At noon on Monday I added more QQQ and AMZN, along with new positions for UWM, BIIB, HAIN, and once again my old friend YHOO. Soon I was pointedly asking myself “when was I going to learn how to buy stocks instead of buying them when it was convenient me to do so”.

I thought about this all week as things got a little worse each day, then once again Friday came with a well-received, good jobs report and most positions recovered well. So for now it appears that my bad timing has been redeemed.

My Dividend Payers and Growers also soared on Friday, led by Lowes and I noted that Biotech’s are gaining momentum.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now 2.88 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows:  all positive

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

CMG -4.52%

YHOO +4.6%

Cramer Basket

PCLN +3.75%

DAL +.57%

GOOG +3.30%

CRM -7.75%

NFLX +2.09%

AMZN +1.76%

HAIN +.43%

Copernicus Basket

FSLR +11.02%

TRIP -2.46%

BIIB -1.85%

IBD Basket

FLT 0.0%

ETF’s:

QQQ +9.12% …Note to self: sell or re-evaluate when gain drops to 8% or rises to 30%

IWM +13.48%

XLI 0.0%

IBB +9.83%

What will I do?

Admittedly there are too many holdings here to keep track of with my limited time. I will sell FSLR and take a nice gain, sell Trip at a modest loss due to a drop in the rankings I follow. I will also sell XLI due a ranking drop, would love to add XLY…but will restrain myself for now.

 

I hope you have a great week.

 

End of the Year Bullish

I am end of the year bullish...and cautiously optimistic.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury Yield is now at 2.74 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now at: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows: all positive

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX sold at a loss, will likely revisit

CMG -4.88%

Cramer Basket

PCLN +4.80%

DAL +3.28%

GOOG +2.31%

CRM -10.82%, can’t blame Cramer for this one, he did warn that it might drop, must sell…or buy more

NFLX +5.36%

AMZN +7.34%

Copernicus Basket

 FSLR +14.48% this could also be in the Cramer basket…Note to self: sell or re-evaluate when gain drops to 8% or rises to 30%

TRIP +.62%

IBD Basket

FLT +2.57%

ETF’s:

EWZ -6.42% sell this week

QQQ +16.00% …Note to self: sell or re-evaluate when gain drops to 8% or rises to 30%

IWM +14.52%

EWG +1.94% sell this week

XLB sold at a modest loss

XLI +.12%

 What will I do?

 Overdue for buying more IWM and QQQ

Will sell EWG due to change in trend

Will sell EWZ once again due to ranking drop

Would like to buy more AMZN and why not some YHOO and better yet BIIB

Would like to buy some HAIN for the Cramer basket

 

I hope you have a great week.

 

More Baskets, More Stocks, More ETF’s

I did pick up stocks FLT and TRIP and ETF’s EWG and XLB as mentioned last week.  I also bought XLB (on bad data) and added CRM and DAL, to the Cramer basket. For good measure I added CMG

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yields now at 2.75 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now at: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows:  all positive

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -14.576%, ….I’m not happy with myself for what I have let happen here. This could recover, but who knows

CMG -2.41%

Cramer Basket

PCLN +1.67%

DAL +1.89%
GOOG -.36%
CRM -6.47%
NFLX +.19%
AMZN +1.53%

Copernicus Basket

FSLR +15.50% …Note to self: sell or re-evaluate when gain drops to 8% or rises to 30%

TRIP -.42%

IBD Basket

FLT +1.86%

ETF’s:

EWZ -4.07% give it another week

QQQ +13.65% 
IWM +12.84%
EWG -.19%
XLB -.88%
XLI +.02%

What will I do?

As mentioned I will sell XLB, perhaps buy more XLI…hoping to look further at MRVL and OTEX

I hope you have a great week.

 

 

Cramer Basket

I enjoy Jim Cramer.

It took some time for me to appreciate his work, but I have now been following him for several years, going back to his days on radio. I find him very entertaining and educational. I know that “you cannot trade with Cramer”. But I find him to be very helpful in understanding what is going on in the market right NOW.

I have often said that when people start predicting what will happen in the future it’s time to stop listening to them. Cramer does try to predict where stocks are going and he is not always right…no one is. But it is always good to hear his reasons and he has such a following no doubt he does influence in the market …IMHO.

All of that said he picked CRM, GOOG, NFLX and AMZN to be good choices between now and the end of year, if my notes taken while on the elliptical listening to a podcast are correct.

Per Mr. Cramer this is due to money managers stuffing their portfolios with these winning stocks so they will look smart when their year-end holdings are reviewed. I sure don’t know if this actually happens, but these have been outstanding stocks this year and they should at least continue this momentum…plus likely the Cramer Effect will help them. So I took a quick look and these, decided to pass on CRM for now and in its place added both PCLN and DAL that Mr. Cramer has said to “buy when down”. This gives me a nice “basket” of five stocks.

I picked this up midday Friday.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yields now at 2.709 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now at: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows:  all positive

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -5.76%, ….I know I should sell this one, perhaps the next time it turns green

FSLR +22.85% …Note to self, sell when gain drops to 8%, rises to 30% or reevaluate

Cramer Basket

PCLN +.16%

DAL +.18%

GOOG -.20%

NFLX +.74%

AMZN +.67%

ETF’s for a trade are:

EWZ -3.13% give it another week

QQQ +13.61% 

IWM +10.20%

IBB +5.03%

What will I do?

I am looking at adding ETF’s EWG and XLB; stocks FLT and TRIP…yes, I am a little bullish right now

I hope you have a great week.

A Quick Review

I did make an initial entry into EWZ (Brazil) this week

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yields continues to rise a little, now 2.75 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) dropped to: Up Trend Under Pressure, but also cites the repair work done on Friday

Copernicus Systems: Long, but mixed IMHO

Moneys Flows:  all positive

 

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -4.97%,

FSLR +15.78% …should I sell?

ETF’s for a trade are:

EWZ -6.28%

QQQ +11.69% 

IWM +10.20%

IBB +1.01%

What will I do?

 I was clearly premature in going into EWZ (Brazil), and it is dropping in the rankings this week, will give it another week.

I will try to decide if it’s time to take a profit in FSLR. At a 15% gain I try to determine if I would buy it at this point…so a little home work is needed

 

I hope you have a great week.

Just After Last Week’s Blog…..

Last week I made the comment “FSLR is up in the rankings I follow…and rapidly doing so. I took a quick look and was surprised to see that it is profitable, but I think I will pass”

Well I changed my mind and early on Monday I  made a couple of buys and by the end of the day I was thinking why did I do that …but the end of the week after “trouncing third-quarter earnings expectations, hitting a 52-week high” I was pleased that I had.
 

First Solar is an energy company that provides solar energy solutions. It provides both components and systems. It is still out of favor with the analysts…does this create more hidden opportunity?

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yields now up a tad to 2.62 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems: Long, but mixed IMHO

Moneys Flows:  all positive

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -6.07%,

FSLR +13.18

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +12.05% 

IWM +9.68%

IBB +1.94%

What will I do?

I will keep my eye on EWZ (Brazil) which is strangely rising in the ranking in spite of FXI (China) falling.

I hope you have a great week.