Low volume this week, and a bit of an uptrend surprise

Trading:

 

I continue to not be able to pick up VZ for a trade.

I have still not able to sell my SDS and I’m now questioning my wisdom of adding REW last week,  however I am not ready to give up on any of these at this point, but if the uptrend continues I will have to cut some losses

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield has switched directions and is now up to  2.03 % this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now Market in Confirmed Up Trend  

Copernicus Systems is now showing to be long in the market.

Money flows continue upward, slower now. Stock prices now upward after last weeks divergence. 

HHH is still headed down in the rankings so in spite of what was an early entry into REW (the leveraged inverse of technology) it is still interesting.

What will I do?

Wait, wait and wait for now

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +13.19%,  – .70%, a very nice turn around

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –9.26%, +.21

SDS -11.71%, -5.78%

REW -.60%, -3.59%

I hope you have a good week

Still Did Not Buy

Once again I did not buy, and now more unsure than ever of what to do this week 

Trading:

Still not able to pick up VZ for a trade

Still not able to sell my SDS , but it continues to be nice hedge in these uncertain times.

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield was down to 1.85% this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is still: Market in Correction  

Copernicus Systems is still mixed in my interpretation, but now showing to be short the market .

Money flows continue upward with stock prices now downward…is this a divergence? 

With HHH headed down in the ranking REW is interesting…the leveraged inverse of technology

What will I do?

Glad I did not pick-up the biotech ETF’s BBH or IBB .

Stocks BA, BMY continue to look good as do  CPWR and VRSN but now I feel less inclined than ever to buy and stocks

REW is indeed interesting

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +6.939.36%,  – 6.19%,

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –9.89%, -.49 %, Ouch, but perhaps time to pick up more with these on sale

I hope you have a good week

I Did Not Buy

Well I just did not buy anything last week, and unsure of what to do to do this week 

Trading:

I was not able to pick up VZ, for a trade…it will require a downturn

And I was not able to sell my SDS , but it is a nice hedge to have in these uncertain times.

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is up a tiny amount to 2.05% this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is still: Market in Correction  

Copernicus Systems is still mixed in my interpretation, but continuing to show “buy”.

Money flows are now curving upward.  

What will I do?

I did not pick up more AGG and on Monday I will sell what I have. I am following one of the Copernicus systems on this.

Once again I am considering the biotech ETF BBH or perhaps  IBB .

Stocks BA, BMY still look good this week as well as new findings: CPWR and VRSN.

All of these are rising in the Copernicus rankings. I will look again on Monday at all of these

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +9.36%,  – 4.06%,

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –1.42%, +8,87 %

AGG +.37%

I hope you have a good week

This has been a year of Flip Flops

Well I am migrating from "bearish" to "cautiously optimistic" as a result of the things I review. 
 

Trading:

I did get my desired 37.5 for VZ, will now be looking for the next drop in its cycle to pick it up again…perhaps 36.5 is a good target

I bought more SDS just in time for the market bounce (this ETF is a leveraged market inverse) and I am really underwater in this trade now. I will just put it away, not look at it too close and wait until the next drop occurs to sell it.

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is up modestly to 2.04% this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is still: Market in Correction  

Copernicus Systems is now mixed but showing “buy” in my interpretation.

Money flows have stopped dropping and are now flat.  

I plan to pick up some AGG. I am following one of the Copernicus systems on this .

I may add the biotech ETF BBH and stocks BA, BMY and MRK that are rising in the Copernicus rankings. But I don’t anticipate holding them long in this market…but who can properly anticipate anything in this market

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +9.36%,  – 4.06%,

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –1.42%, +8,87 %

I hope you have a good week

Bearish I am, but still trading a little

Well I am bearish as a result of the things I review, but there are always some things to trade

 

Trading:

I did not yet sell my VZ, still hoping for 37.5.

I picked up some RSU on the 21^st and sold it on the 28^th for a modest $.50 gain per share.

I just bought some SDS on the 29^th and plan to sell it on the next down day

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is again down a little to 1.94% this week. (November 29)

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is still: Market in Correction  

Copernicus Systems is pretty clear to be short in my interpretation.

Money flows continue down  

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +4.73%,  – 8.12%,

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –3.13%, +6.98 %

I hope you have a good week

A Time To Go Short?

Things are looking down based on the things I review on the weekend…but a “Santa Claus” rally is always a possibility this time of the year. I anticipate a lot of shopping is to take place, so retailers are likely to finish well rally or not.

I was able to pick up some VZ for another trade this week, in at 36.5, hope to sell at 37.5.

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is down a little to 2.01% this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has changed to: Market in Correction  

Copernicus Systems has shown some changes, and is basically short in my interpretation.

Money flows are clearly down now 

 EWG and EWJ still look bad (Germany and Japan)

My stock picks TXN and  KLAC  have dropped and need to be sold  now

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +5.22%,  – 7.69 %,

KLAC  +2.80 % sell

TXN –1.77 %, sell

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –2.70%, +7.46 %

HHH -.12.88 %; –7.39 % time to sell… past time

AGG +. 44% may sell

XLE –5.11%, sell

Perhaps it is time to pick up some SH

I hope you have a good week

A few changes to make this week and a little profit to take

Our markets are now been looking to Italy in addition to Greece, likely this means more cycling to continue

I continue to watch VZ looking for another trade, but this is beginning to look like a stock to own, not trade…perhaps.

 

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is again at 2.05% this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to show: Uptrend Under Pressure  

Copernicus Systems has shown some changes, but still mixed in my interpretation.

Money flows creep up, but only slightly 

 EWG and EWJ still look bad, actually worse (Germany and Japan)

My stock picks TXN and  KLAC are still looking good but ARBA is dropping in the rankings, so time to sell and take a little profit

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +7.94%,  – 5.31 %, down a little this week.

KLAC  +12.20 %…still gaining

TXN +2.97 %, down a percent

ARBA +5.11 % down a mite, time to sell…5% is not bad, thank you

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD +.98%, +11.52 % continuing to recover

HHH -..09 %; –6.01 % WATCHING!

AGG -.12%, now down

SPY -.45%

I hope you have a good week...and I think I will sell that SPY and will look at some XLE

Probably a good time just to watch

I did sell BBH at a decent profit this week, but did not buy the QQQ. It just did not seem right and it does not look right now.

I am still watching for a price to pick up VZ again for another trade. It dropped close to my buy price but did not get there. It is still channeling so I am still watching. 

I did buy a little SPY but that went nowhere this week.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.05%, down this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now shows: Uptrend Under Pressure  (and I feel it)

Copernicus Systems is showing mixed signals, in my interpretation.

Money flows may be finding a plateau, but some are up nonetheless.

I keep looking for a rise in EWG and EWJ here…but it gets worse for Germany and Japan…not better.

My stock picks TXN, KLAC and ARBA are still looking good with gains in all three. (I did not add BIIB as mentioned last week)

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +12.32%,  – 1.46 %, down a little this week.

KLAC  +9.96 %…up a mite this week

TXN +3.97 %, up this week

ARBA +5.94 % down a little

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –.82%, +9.53 % continuing to recover

HHH -.95 %; –6.82 % WATCHING!

AGG +. 79%

I hope you have a good week

Time for a little profit taking tomorrow

I will be selling BBH at a decent profit but mainly due the QQQ looking stronger now.

Also I have taken modest profits a couple of times with VZ trades recently, will be looking to increase the risk in this if the opportunity presents itself again. These are very short-term positions as the stock has been channeling. 

I did buy RSU early last week but became uncomfortable with it and sold it for a negligible gain.

I still may be ready to jump aboard but with the more conservative  SPY if the market momentum begins to build.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.31, up this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is showing uniformity in two of their systems, in my interpretation. But pointing to bonds in another.

Money flows are still up…a good sign and once again many stocks looked interesting.  TXN, KLAC and ARBA are still looking good with gains in all three. I may add BIIB to make the stock trio a quartet

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +13.64,  – .30 %, recovering this week.

KLAC  +9.66 %…a nice gain this week

TXN +2.97 %, now positive

ARBA +6.91 %

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD –1.54%, +8.74 % recovering

HHH + .95 %; –5.03 % down this week but I will still hold

BBH +6.07%, +7.11 % a nice profit in both buys, but adios for now

AGG +. 34%

I hope you have a good week

The Market still does not seem safe or comfortable

Well in all honestly I am not sure the market is ever safe or comfortable. It is always a risk and that is what can bring reward. But for now I will wait for some upward momentum before risking more. If we do see a true breakout I will be ready to jump aboard with SPY and perhaps my old friend RSU

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.20

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is still showing mixed directions in their systems, at least in my interpretation. I did add additional HHH and BBH this week and I am comfortable with what I have but will not add more this week.

Money flows are still up…a good sign and once again many stocks looked interesting but the initial positions I took last week in TXN, KLAC and ARBA are all I want for now

I did get my additional position in AAPL, but I bought it too soon and therefore bought it poorly.

Last week I mentioned confusion in seeing one of the Copernicus systems moving from cash to a bond ETF; AGG…I am not confused now, but not comfortable as it is bearish for stocks to see this happen.

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  +10.28 % down badly from last week; – 3.28 %, my new position

KLAC  +. 28 %

TXN -.42 %

ARBA +3.31 %

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD first purchase –7.40 %; second purchase+ 2.26 %

HHH + 3.45 %; –2.68 %

BBH +4.46 %;  +3.45 %

I hope you have a good week

I am not confident that we have seen the bottom... but

I am not confident that we have seen the bottom in this recent down turn. We may yet dip again, but last weeks venture back into the market was good, so I will continue with another cautious step.

My little trade in  VZ did work out and I will be looking for another dip to re-enter. However, this may not occur as VZ may now just be trending upward rather than channeling.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield continues a modest rise, now 2.23… I am a little concerned and a little confused with what I see in happening in one of the Copernicus systems…more on that later.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has now changed its outlook to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend. Unfortunately I did not catch when this occurred

Copernicus Systems is still showing mixed directions in their systems, however I will take additional positions in both HHH and  BBH , have been pleased with the first steps taken last week.

Many stocks looked interesting but I narrowed my choices down to: TXN, KLAC and ARBA and I will likely take initial positions in these as money flows are now up. I am also looking for more AAPL having recently missed a good chance to do so.

I mentioned earlier that I am a little confused with seeing one of the Copernicus systems moving from cash to a bond ETF; AGG…but I am following this one closely so I will take an initial position to follow suit.

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL + 18.43%, what a great company this is

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD first purchase –5.15%

GLD second purchase+ 4.75%

HHH + 6.59

BBH +1.33

I hope you have a good week

Time to stick my toe back in the water.

Am I a little anxious to get back into the market in a positive way? You bet. I may be a little too eager, but I will re-enter with a baby step on Monday.

I have already entered a small trade for VZ, but that is a learning experience to see if I can squeak out a small gain by trading the cycles. One of my friends has mastered this using T most recently and some REITs earlier. I may not be able to devote the time needed for this, but decided to gain some experience.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Now that I have moved into bonds via a total bond index fund, it is time to watch interest rates. The 10-yr Treasury yield may be a good tool, it settled above the 2.00% threshold for the first time in two weeks and ended Friday's trade at 2.068%, (not a good sign) . I am plowing new ground with bonds, and I know bond value can drop as interest rates rise, so I will be watching this.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Correction

Copernicus Systems is showing mixed directions in their systems, however I saw some positive things in the USA ETF’s that convinces me to take a small initial position in HHH or BBH or both.

Some stocks looked interesting: JBL, KLAC, MRVL, ORCL, IBM, ARBA and  RHT…but I'm just watching these for now. Even though portfolio prices are up, money flows are down.

This week Copernicus sent our 3rd Quarter one-year and five-year results. They are posted here: http://www.advanced-stock-selection.com/2011Q3-results-table.htm  TSPselect has done quite well recently, but look at the 5 year gain with Switch

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL + 3.78%

ETF’s for a trade are:

I closed positions in both SH and GDX last week and bought more GLD

GLD first purchase -7.60%

GLD second purchase+ 2.05%

I hope you have a good week

You can see it at the pump

This weekend I saw local gasoline prices drop below $3/gal. How long has it been since that has occurred? …less than two years I think, but it aligns with seeing energy ETF’s fighting for last place in the rankings. Also low in the rankings for some time has been the German ETF:  EWG and the financial ETF: XLF.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

First looking at charts for the general market I still see the lateral movement that began late Feb. The recent waterfall drop interrupted this, but it just lowered the graph…. this market is just going sideways, but with lots of waves.

Perhaps the potential of another waterfall drop still exists. However, many companies are going about their business and making profits so it should not be this way, but for now European events with their fears and hints of solutions just keep driving these waves.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) shows: Market in Correction

Copernicus Systems is showing to be short the market. Two out of three money flows are now again trending downwards.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 7.01%

ETF’s for a trade are:

SH   +. 11%

GLD  -8.25%

GDX –15.44%

GDX , the ETF of gold mining stocks should recover, but it has now dropped below my most liberal  allowance and will have to be sold.

In my last post I mentioned the purpose of SH was to hedge against  some mutual stock funds that are long in the market and that I was looking at going into a bond fund. This is in process but not yet complete. I may have been premature in reducing my positions in SH a couple of weeks ago and will be watching this. However I am more confident in the bond fund now, as it has a positive total return which few stocks funds are achieving lately.

 

I hope you have a good week

Have We Seen The Bottom?

First let me say that I will likely not be posting next weekend, but will post when possible 

Last week I said I was comfortable doing nothing, but I did end up doing some selling. It was time to remove at least some of the protection so I sold the all of the SDS and about half of the SH 

The protection with short ETF's was to balance some illiquid mutual funds that are long in the market. For this account I am now looking at going into a bond fund and percentage-wise get my age into the bond fund and 100-age in the mutual fund...then just not worry about this account too much.

I do not like bond funds but I sure don't like mutual funds, so for this account the available bond fund is beginning to make a little sense and I will be giving it a try. Hopefully this will leave me a little freer to focus on stocks, ETF's and periodic reviews of dividend payers.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Amazon was up nicely on Friday. I don't currently own it but try to follow it. My dividend payers have been doing well. Notably GWW hit a 52 week high last week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Confirmed Uptrend

Copernicus Systems is still a little mixed and still showing to be short in my interpretation, but less so than last week. Money flows are still trending upwards and now so are the portfolio prices.

If I were ready to re-enter on Monday it would be with:

ETF's:  HHH and BBH

Stocks: MRVL, AMZN, and YHOO

...but I am not ready just yet

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 12.4 %, up nicely this week

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 6.41 %

GLD  + 2.18

GDX -1.78%

Have we seen the bottom? That is sure not clear to me yet

What will I do next week? I may move out of the rest of SH.

 

I hope you have a good week

I am pretty comfortable doing nothing

European financial issues and anything else still readily affects the US markets. Perhaps being reminded of the tragic events of 10 years ago exacerbated the drop on Friday.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Confirmed Uptrend…. however they warn that the choppiness should urge caution

Copernicus Systems is no longer mixed with all systems now showing to be short…however money flows are trending upwards. I am learning to look for divergences and I see a divergence in some of the weekly portfolio prices trending down and the money flows trending up…does this mean an upward change is coming? I am not yet confident in my understanding but I will watch this closely to learn.  

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 4.97 %, up about 1% this week

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 2.97 %

SH    - 1.41 %

SDS  - 5.76 %

GLD + 4.89%, but actually down this week

GDX +. 81% a new addition this week, an ETF of gold miners

Looking back at my earlier purchases of SH and SDS my timing could sure could have been better. These should be up, but I remember making these purchase on down days....perhaps I was a little fearful at the time and a little late. It is what it is and it is also protection to make me somewhat neutral against some illiquid mutual funds.

What will I do next week? I am pretty comfortable doing nothing and waiting to see if the market finds a fixed direction.

Have a great week

Brief Update

So what did I see in my weekend review?

My Dividend Payers are in general back to their 50 day averages.

On Friday the market gave up their gains for the week and gold has rallied once again. The gold miners look interesting. GDX is an ETF for this.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows : Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is still mixed, at least in my interpretation. Money flows have stopped falling are moving sideways and slightly up, but far from robust.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 4.97 %

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 4.38 %

SH    - 2.59 %

SDS  - 8.29 %

GLD + 6.37%

With gold going like a rocket it is hard to add more. I may add some GDX on Monday, perhaps some more SH.....still need some more thought on all of this.

Have a great week

What Stocks Have Performed Well?

Last week I mentioned RGR had out performed gold…and I have not seen anything else that has done so well

KO (Coke) has done well, hardly dipping.

AAPL (Apple) has had concerns but held up in spite of the news of Jobs stepping aside.

MCD (MacDonald’s) has been stellar but still gold has been hard to beat.

All of these have outperformed the Dow; see Chart

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) made three changes in their Outlook this week and ended up with: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.  …I just don’t see this whipsaw action as a confidence builder

Copernicus Systems is mixed, at least in my interpretation. Money flows have stopped falling and appear to be trying to reverse and move upward.

Interestingly the top performing stocks in the Copernicus systems were MCD and AAPL…in that order.

I sold UGL this week for a modest gain. I was not sure where gold was going for the short term and levered ETF’s can move fast. I could revisit this again

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 7.65 %

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    - 4.38 %

SH    - 2.59 %

SDS  - 8.07 %

GLD + 3.02%

SDS has triggered a downward sell point. I will give it a little more room to see what shakes out. I also have to remind myself that I bought this and the two SH purchases for protection so the loss is offset by other gains

Have a great week

No Where To Run, No Where to Hide

Actually this is not true but simply a way to introduce my thoughts on the market after this weekend review. There are plenty of places to hide and cash may the best but being short has been a good option lately …so has gold.

Speaking of gold, guess what has out performed gold for the last 6 months and greatly out paced the Dow?

Take a look at this chart here

Nothing against Sturm, Ruger & Company, probably a great company, they are profitable, they are paying a nice dividend, but it is sort of disgusting when it takes a firearms manufacturer to beat just about everything you can think of and soundly trounce the Dow.

Last week was pretty nasty for the Dow; take a look back at the opening drop on Thursday and no sign of a bounce on Friday (Chart)  

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues in their Current Outlook with: Market in Correction. 

Copernicus Systems continues to solidly point to the trend being “Down” and to be short.

The top performing ETF’s in the Copernicus systems were GLD (of course) and EWJ.

I have been noticing EWJ, an ETF for Japan, climbing in the rankings so I took a look at the chart. Nothing good here yet  (see chart), just better than the other ETF’s

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL - .08%, falling from last week to finally show a loss

ETF's for a trade are:

SH    +.32%

SH    +2.2%

SDS  +1.25%

GLD +4.46%

UGL +9.0%This after being badly down last week ( -7.08%) last week

So there are places to hide, such as funds that short the market and of course gold

I still believe there are opportunities ahead but that could take time. Many are seeing the worst of this downturn is yet ahead, perhaps we are just getting started in this downturn. One source points to October before we see a bottom. I will be watching and hopefully learning along the way!

Have a great week

Down on Monday, up on Tuesday, down on Wednesday, up big on Thursday and sideways on Friday…where is this going???

Last week I asked “Will we see a continued drop on Monday?”

We will did and as this (See Chart) shows we were down on Monday, up on Tuesday, down on Wednesday, up big on Thursday and sideways on Friday.

After the rally on Thursday I began to wonder, was that the bottom… it is up from here? If it was heading up what was driving it?

Well no one really knows what the market will do in the future, so what can we see from recent history?

Looking back we can see that on the road to the low of 6443 on March 6, 2009 we saw multiple “rallies”. This was on a decline from the all time market high of 14165 on October 9, 2007 (remember that?). In short order the Dow lost 54.5% with these rallies present. Well, it did not dwell at the bottom for long at all but in a mere 3 weeks it was up 20% and by the end of 2009 it was up 60%. See Chart

So back to the question, have we seen the market bottom? I think we will see additional rallies same as before as the market appears to have been oversold. Businesses are doing well, but overall what would drive a new bull market now???

With the historically volatile months of Sept-Oct-Nov just ahead we will see the future soon enough.

Here is my conclusion: Based on a recap of history we could well see additional rallies, but the trend is still downward at this time.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues in their Current Outlook with: Market in Correction. 

Copernicus Systems is solidly pointing to the trend being “Down” and to be short. I looked carefully for some stocks and  ETF’s here and just did not see anything of interest

Last week I did sell AMZN and BIDU  (both are up from when I sold them) and I held onto AAPL

I scrambled to get neutral to cover illiquid holdings and bought SH (twice) and SDS (a 2x-leveraged inverse of the same). I also bought gold, first GLD and then the 2x leveraged UGL none of these are doing well but they are there for protection …to make me neutral.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL + 5.80%

ETF's for a trade are:

SH   -2.20%

SH   -3.99%

SDS -1.34%

GLD -2.65%

UGL -7.08%

As bad as these look they are offset.…and after this weekend review I actually may add to them.

Looking ahead I combed though the dividend payer stocks that I own, many of these held up nicely such as KO, but drops were seen in DOV, GWW, XOM, WM and CSX. These are great companies and if the market recovers they could gain 15% quickly, but it is just too soon to add more. With nothing to buy for this group, I should add protection here as well

I am not optimistic that a full recovery will occur soon and quick drops are still possible as many are on the edge…but opportunities are ahead in the future

Have a great week!

Will we see a continued drop on Monday?

Last week I wrote, “Will we see a stock market rally next week?” Well it did rally briefly at the opening, but quickly turned down and into a mess.

With the downward slide all week see chart and the US debt rating down grade on Friday we have to wonder what might we see on Monday, but it will be here soon enough to see.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) in their Current Outlook says: Market in Correction. 

No need to “interpret” Copernicus Systems this week. It is clearly guiding to sell or even to go short. I quote: “all systems across this website are now lined up emphatically negative--with vigor”

Copernicus Systems points to some an interesting selling divergence confirmations pointing to an even lower market in the future. 

I also found it interesting that a wise friend had earlier in the week pointed to a Dow Theory sell signal being generated; first with a non-confirmation between the Dow Transports and Dow Industrials generating a warning signal and then confirmation of a sell signal with the two falling together below previous lows.

Speaking of selling, I ended up selling both XLE and OIH last week after they zoomed past my downside sell points. .

I have not finished my determination as to what to do on Monday, but selling all of the stocks listed below seems possible and buying some protection such as SH and/or SDS to cover illiquid holdings and dividend stocks seems prudent.

SH is an inverse of the S & P 500 and SDS is a 2x-leveraged inverse of the same

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN –6.39 %

BIDU  -2.70%

AAPL + 4.85%

ETF's for a trade are:

none

Have a great week!

Will we see a stock market rally next week?

The US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling continues. The real objective by the conservatives was and is to cut spending. Having this unresolved seems to have stymied the Market, which does not like unknowns. Looking at some daily charts during the week I sense that the market wants to rally a bit. If this is correct the market could rally when the agreements are finalized …assuming they are. I don't know how much, perhaps just back to the top of its recent trading range.

In regard to having this go unresolved, Boehner and Republicans have won on policy, forcing a national conversation about debt and pushing the President to focus on spending cuts and drop demands for new revenue (taxes). If unresolved Obama could go down as the president who lost the country's triple-A credit rating, and Boehner as the House speaker who let it happen…so this sure seems likely to get resolved.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) predictably changed their Current Outlook on Wednesday.

It is now: Market in Correction. 

IBD goes on to say:  “ It could open the door to a rally, or it could be judged an irrelevant kicking of the can down the road. There is no way to know in advance”.  This is certainly true but I feel the rally is more likely.

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be short,  but it is a little mixed.

Energy ETF’s still look good to me, both XLE and OIH. I took initial positions in both of these this week, thinking of them as a bit of a “black gold” hedge.

I am halfway though my mid year adjustment on dividend stocks. I sold CFR, CIM and SWK. I have not yet done the buying part but at some point I will be buying CSX, PX, XOM, BDX, and SJM. 

If you are interested in more on this last week I discussed how I evaluate these and so far so good.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN +2.76 %

BIDU  +8.40

AAPL + 9.58

I like Apple....and they have more cash than the US " Apple's quarterly financial report shows that the company now has $76.4 billion in reserve cash, while the Treasury Department is sitting on just $73.7 billion" ...go AAPL go!

ETF's for a trade are:

OIH – .23%

XLE –2.86

Have a great week!

Will Next Week Bring Opportunities?

It will be interesting to see what affect the US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling will have on the markets next week. Perhaps this will break the sideways market action that has been going on since mid February …(sideways if you smooth out the cycles).

 I don’t know what the result can be when the opposing sides seem so rigidly polarized,  but hopefully if the market is driven down it will just be a short term buying opportunity for value investors.

I am reminding myself of the sideways action, the cycles and the unknown effect that politics can have …so I will likely not be trading on Monday morning.

…but I will be ready when the clouds lift.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Confirmed UpTrend

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be long.

Energy ETF’s are looking good to me, both XLE and OIH.

GLD is also looking good… I need to buy and hold some gold

I will see how the markets look in the morning before deciding when to move or whether to move at all

Last Monday I sold AXP, HHH and SPY.

I held onto AMZN, BIDU and AAPL and I am pleased that I did so…these may be good to hold and let my “rules” guide when to sell.

I have been doing a mid year review on dividend stocks and will be making some needed adjustments. I will sell: CFR (who needs a bank now), CIM and AGNC (no more REITS for now, but the dividends have been incredible), SWK… a bit of a disappointment compared to what I found to purchase.

I will be buying CSX (I need a rail and this one looks great), PX (Praxair, I like the business and they are doing well), XOM (Exxon Mobil, time for some energy and this one is King), BDX (medical devices), and SJM (Smuckers, an excellent company and a little more food diversification).

For evaluation of dividend stocks I sum the current yield and the 5 year dividend growth rate. Currently I have a goal for this to be 11.5% or better. For example McDonald's, which I hold, is 32.26% and Walgreen's is 30.44%. The CSX I will be adding is 42.21%. By comparison Stanley was only 9.51%

 I look for stocks that have a consistent record of earnings growth and very consistent dividend increases. time. I also review the chart and look for consistently steady price application. 

This strategy is still evolving, but working well

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN -.01%, almost back to even after an early loss

BIDU  +6.28%, excellent

AAPL +10.38% stellar performance, simply stellar

ETF's for a trade are:

None for now

Have a great week…opportunities may abound for the brave, be ready!