Sunday, March 27, 2011

Dividend Stocks and Biotech Discussed

Perhaps it is time for me to pick up Biotech, more on that later.

Dividend Stocks

This week I did began an overdue clean up on a basket of dividend stocks that I hold. I typically do not hold  bonds but for balance I like to dividend-paying companies. When I buy these I do so with the idea that I will hold them forever. Well forever is a long time. I check these each quarter to see if they are still profitable and still paying a dividend and if not I sell them. Then about once a year I do an overall review of the portfolio and see if I can find any better choices.

Since reading The Ultimate Dividend Playbook  by Josh Peters I have learned not to just focus on yield, but rather a combination of yield and dividend growth. Makes sense doesn’t it? If the dividend is growing the stock price should be following …or perhaps leading.

Of my dividend paying stocks held last year I was most impressed with the performance of  DOV and not just for the dividend. This is the type of company that is ideal for this portfolio; just a great diversified industrial machinery company that you may never have heard of. It pays a modest dividend now, but it was much higher when I bought it, but look at what the stock price has done for the past two years:

In the dividend stocks I will be picking up I am most excited about GWW, another great industrial equipment company. This one you may be familiar as it has a catalog for maintenance type and industrial products that many use. Take a look at its two-year chart:

I sure don’t know if these gains will continue, but these are great companies that pay modest dividends and  they have increased their dividends seemingly forever

What did I see in the weekend review?

1. IBD’s Market Outlook is still  “ Market in Correction” 

2. My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, some of the signs are encouraging, but some are not.

3. For stocks of interest I was attracted to BIDU, RHT, and GRMN. And then three biotech stocks BIIB, GENZ, and GILD. I think this is the third week in a row for BIIB and Cramer has touted GILD

Well I am still not ready to go with any of these on Monday, still just watching, but Biotech is getting very interesting 

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC 1.76, at least it has turned around

CMG   3.90, a nice gain this week

EMC  10.78, very nice now.

AAPL   10.90 also nice once again

The ETF's for a trade:

USO  3.81% up this week as was expected .

GLD down –.64 %, still soft 

Biotech is showing up here as well, I may well pick up either BBH or IBB

For normal ETF's, I still have both OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ), which contiune to do well and XLF which is dipping now.

Have a great week!

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Wait Wait Wait

Wait, wait, and wait. This is something I do poorly but it seems to be my conclusion as to what I must do.


I did some selling this week; or rather the market led me to sell more on that later. I still do not see the need to begin legging out of the market, or the need to dive back in so it is wait, wait and wait for now.


What did I see in the weekend review?


1. IBDs Market Outlook is of course Market in Correction 

2. My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, but a downward trend has been seen and it continues. The review of the Copernicus System is weekly and I use it for guidance as to what to do on Monday.

3. I still see stocks of interest, but fewer this week. First are some dividend paying medical related stocks: BM and PFE. Next VZ continues to looks interesting and also pays a nice dividend. BIIB caught my eye for the second week in a rowis it getting to be time for Biotech again?

Well those are all pipe dreams and simply on the watch list and the thing I am watching most is when does the market turn?.


I learned a little something this week and that is a true hedge is something that is a known inverse and not what I think might be a hedge.

This week I sold AGQ a leveraged silver ETF which had gone out of the box on the top (see Sell Rules ) and qualified in my mind for a reset to a new box. Then it dropped I had to sell it. I still managed a modest gain, but it was sure not much of a hedge

Next I sold SLW , which simply went out the bottom of its box for a loss.

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

  –2.76 %, continuing its move in the wrong direction

- .12 down again

up 3.89 %, but down for the week.

up 4.31 but also down for the week

The ETF's for a trade:

up .84% up a little the week, expect this to rise next week.

GLD down –.28 %, but actually moved up a little

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ),  which  are doing fine and  XLF which is dipping now.

Last I want to mention a somewhat new product from Copernicus:

This system was designed specifically for the TSP; the government pension savings plan for U.S. Federal employees.
TSP is not available to me, but I see the need to follow the advice, which appears to be conservative, and it is off to a good start.
In place of the TSP funds some selected ETF’s and money market funds can be used…and I hope to use leveraged versions of the ETF’s when that day comes.
I do not plan on giving away the signals, but may talk about it in future blogs
Well I hope we have had our correction, perhaps we will know next week

Sunday, March 13, 2011

What a Week. What did we learn?

Last weeks terrible Earthquake and resultant Tsunami had its horrible effect on Japan. The full effect of the devastation is unfortunately not yet fully revealed.  The Day of Rage being somewhat muted in Saudi Arabia actually drove the price of oil down. 


So what do I conclude in my weekend stock review?


First I weigh in on IBDs Market Outlook changing to Market in Correction on last Tuesday. This was expected and I assume this prediction is conservative in nature


On Friday I was really surprised to see all of the Markets I follow close slightly up.Unfortunately, as pointed out by some, it may be that  Japans misfortune is expected to have a positive effect on our economy as they begin recovery  and later rebuilding


My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, but a downward trend is  seen for the near term, just not enough to get me legging out of the Marketyet


In this weeks review of stocks a very large number show interest: BA, BMY, CVX, KO, DIS, XOM, MMM, PFE, VZ, CTXS, JCOM, NTES, ALTR, BIIB, DELL, GRMN and GILD. 


But until the market direction is clearly pointed upward I will not put new money to work. (I am a momentum investor not a value investor)


The hedges that I put in place are not working, comments on that to follow

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC up .17 %, absolutely hammered this week

CMG  up 2.29 % down modestly

EMC up 7.78 % holding okay

AAPL   up 11.04 % also holding okay

SLW down 4.7% the silver trade for a hedge, surprisingly downward action for the week, but it is recovering

The leveraged ETF's for a trade:

AGQ up 14.66 % This is a leveraged silver ETF, up modestly and near the sell or rest point

USO up .15%  a straight play on the price of oil, falling from last week as oil fell.

GLD down –1.38 %, another hedge that is not working, perhaps gold just got a little to far ahead of itself, or perhaps many are raising cash

Having the  Sell Rules manage these takes the pressure off trying to figure out what actions to take, I can let the market do that

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ),  which  are doing fine and  XLF which continues to actually do fairly well.

It sure seems to me that the Market wants now continue the two year upward trend, but if that was a correction it was not much of one…so caution is the word at least short term

Hope you have a good week.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Caution May Be The Word

I did a fair amount of trading last week to add some hedges for caution and eliminate some leveraged positions that just no longer make sensemore on that later.


This weeks review of Copernicus Systems show there has been Money Flow weakness for about three weeks. That makes sense with what has happened and a good reminder to go forward with caution until the Market direction is clearly  headed upward againwhich it could at any time.

IBD understandably continues their Market Outlook of "Uptrend Under Pressure", so this is in agreement with Copernicus.

I should also add that my interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market


I did once again see a number of stocks of interest: DELL, GRMN, GILD, CVX, GSOL and JNPR,  but I assume I will pass again on picking up more stocks....but it is good to see these


I sold some leveraged general positions: BGU , RSU and UWM that just don’t make sense to me unless an uptrend is clear. 

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

up 11.21 %, picking up a nice gain this week

up 3.20 % Looking a little better this week

up 10.74 % Added nicely

up 13.56 %....seems now restored

SLW up 2.09% was added this week, a silver trade for a hedge

The leveraged ETF's for a trade:

up 13.42 % This is a leveraged silver ETF.

USO up 4.18% a straight play on the price of oil was added this week. I was little miffed that OIH and XLE were not tracking the oil moves closely, actually they were inversely proportional at times. This one will move directly proportional to oil in the US as it reflects the performance of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil...not sure this is really investing, but will hold it for the near term as a hedge

GLD down -.58 %, seem like time to add a little gold for a hedge

For all of the stocks and ETF’s for a trade I plan on letting the Sell Rules manage these. This could include a reset of the acquisition price  as is discussed in the rules

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil ETF's ),  which of course are doing fine and  XLF
which continues to hold on.

What will happen this week? ...I do not know the future, only what is happening now