The Drama of It All

As this posting is written at mid-day January 31….still no “deal” on taxes and government spending. The markets are actually up a tad, which I assume points to the market being ready to go as soon as the “deal” is done.

Perhaps Jeff Macke summed it up well saying:

In a nutshell, there is no real cliff. We are about to start a series of tax hikes and spending cuts that will extend over the coming weeks and months. There is less drama than meets the eye today. Even if a last second agreement is announced, it won't be anywhere near comprehensive enough to staunch the bleeding from wounds Washington is inflicting on the economy.

And ……“The depressing state of our elected officialdom aside, the odds still favor the economic cycle saving us from ourselves. American manufacturing jobs are being created, home prices are rising and stocks have quietly posted four straight years of gains.

And ..…”Ironically, if D.C. could get out of the way, politicians could be fighting over credit for the economy rather than killing it in the crib.

We know per Winston Churchill (who knew us well): 

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."


So in the long run we know that it will all work out as the American manufacturing engine slowly cranks up.

What did I see in my weekend review?
 The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.63.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now shows: Uptrend Under Pressure 
Copernicus Systems: Mixed

Moneys Flows:  Not available as of this writing

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

RGR -11.99%  It's down badly but appears to be recovering in the past few days of trading

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  .77%

EWH .sold

Doghouse:

AAPL  -17.37, but it seems reasonable it will climb soon…didn’t most get an Apple produce for Christmas?

What will I do?

Cash is good.

I understand that China has reached a soft landing in their economy so FXI is looking good as is  EWZ (Brazil). Perhaps EEM (Emerging Markets) is worth picking up soon.

I just have not completed that list of stocks to consider picking up if the cliff puts stocks on sales: but sure nothing wrong with KSU, BMY and HON mentioned last week

I hope you have a great week and a prosperous new year

Just a couple of comments

This time of the year is a busy one so just a few comments.

We have the cliff issues. Resolution could led to a rally and going over the cliff could lead to a crash.

I don't think anyone knows with certainty which will occur, although many have an opinion...I'm not going to venture a guess, just want to say as a taxpayer I am not happy with the shenanigans that some call negotiations.

What will I do?

I will sell EWH and perhaps pick up EWG.

I have picked up SPY and XLF, but too soon, I also bought more RGR, again too soon. It would be good to do more of all of these if the bottom can be spotted or at least an upward trend seen

I did sell a portion of the GLD, will hold the rest.

I know in the long run it will all work out and we will move forward in some fashion.

Its a good time to try to see when a trend develops...or try to judge when a bottom has occurred.

I hope you have a good week.

Merry Christmas to all.

Stuck with RGR…but it's okay

I did not get my 10% gain as hoped for in RGR. I just missed it and I’m now at a loss as far as stock price goes, but in reality I still have a little profit due to a $4.50 per share special dividend obtained by owning this stock on Friday. I should have sold this stock further ahead of the ex-date and it's likely to drop more on Monday....could be a good day to buy more. The regular dividend is now up to 3% so this would make a great stock for my Dividend Payers….but it’s in the wrong account.
Since this is a profitable company I will hold it and see if it can recover its price momentum
In any event, I am mostly in cash and watching to see what happens as we go over the cliff. This event seems likely to happen, much to the dismay of most taxpayers.

What did I see in my weekend review?

 The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.63

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Confirmed Up Trend 

Copernicus Systems: is still Long

Moneys Flows is trending up in 3/3 portfolios; one is positive, but I see a divergence in price that imply to me that the money flow could trend down soon.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
RGR -4.77% 

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  .21%

EWH .83% 

Doghouse:

AAPL  -16.38

What will I do?

Cash is good.

I have started a list of stocks to consider picking up if the cliff puts stocks on sales: KSU a railroad that operates North and South and does a lot of business related to Mexico; Bristol Myers; and Honeywell…all great companies, but this needs more study

I hope you have a great week.

The Cliff Approaches

As we get closer to the self-imposed end of the year fiscal cliff, the unknowns are likely to increase and drive the market downward…..or will they?

This event is well known and I am not alone in looking for a time to jump in. If  everyone is looking for this and planning on investing or trading when they see it drop or when they think it has bottomed, how could we have much of a drop? Will we have a drop at all with so many anticipating it?

In any event, I will be mostly in cash soon and watching

What did I see in my weekend review?
 The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.69, now up a bit.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues at: Confirmed Up Trend 

Copernicus Systems: is Long

Moneys Flows are trending upward in 3 out of 3 , but still negative.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
RGR +8.46%, was purchased this week, quick progress and hope to sell soon at 10%

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  .75%

EWW .53% will sell soon

EWH -.04% may sell soon

Doghouse:

FRAN -23.31plan on selling on Monday…worst pick in a long time
AAPL  -8.22% recovery continues, hope to let it out of the doghouse soon

What will I do?

I am pleased with RGR, but hope to take the quick profit, will sell EWW, perhaps sell EWH, will be watching SLV and will be looking for the appropriate time to jump into the SPY

I hope you have a great week.