Sunday, October 28, 2012

Is it too late to short?

Last week would have been a good time to short, but hindsight vision has much better clarity.  The market has been affected by earnings lower than expectations. This surprised me but perhaps it will lower expectations going forward.

As seen above we still are well clear of an S&P 500 drop to 1396. This had been cited by a technician as one of the Fibonacci numbers that if breached, will signal a greater drop going forward.

At this point no trend is obvious to me, perhaps just more cycling from here. One would assume that the upcoming presidential election would bring some clarity.

What did I see in my weekend review?
The 10-yr Treasury Yield is at: 1.75
IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction 
Copernicus Systems: is late due to AT&T issue
Moneys Flows unknown, anxious to see results

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL -6.82% This stock actually dropped below 600 briefly one day this week. But I did not have an opportunity to look and see if there was a reason for this, will still consider adding more on future drops.

ETF’s for a trade are:
GLD +.68%
EWG -2.00
IWM -4.47%
SLV -5.91% actually up a tad 

This new category still seems to be good for candidates waiting for recovery. (They must be profitable). ALXN joins this week.
ALXN -15.83%  This is a single drug healthcare stock and volatility should be expected. This seems to be a solid stock financially so it gets some room.
FRAN -13.67% this retailer seemed to be a great stock. However I did some “mall” research on it and visited a store for the first time. There were people in the store but it’s just not at all what I thought it was, will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
ALGN  -30.41% dropped a little more this week

What will I do?
Simply continue to wait this out. 

I am well aware that the market could well drop lower and additional stocks could go to the doghouse as did ALXN this week.  But I am hoping that any drop wall not last long.

A bit more comment on the mall research performed this week. The biggest surprise was the business at Nordstrom and the number of people carrying Nordstrom shopping bags at the mall. Other busy stores were: Pottery Barn, Banana Republic, Ann Taylor, Gap (with badly scratched floors), Bed Bath and Beyond.

Stores noticeably less busy: American Eagle, Express, Guess. Limited,  Fossil, Chico’s

Sort of in between were: Dillard’s (visited early), Abercrombie and Fitch (what an “experience”), True Religion, Buckle and Saks

I hope you have a great week.

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