Sunday, July 24, 2011

Will Next Week Bring Opportunities?

It will be interesting to see what affect the US political maneuvering regarding the debt ceiling will have on the markets next week. Perhaps this will break the sideways market action that has been going on since mid February …(sideways if you smooth out the cycles).

 I don’t know what the result can be when the opposing sides seem so rigidly polarized,  but hopefully if the market is driven down it will just be a short term buying opportunity for value investors.

I am reminding myself of the sideways action, the cycles and the unknown effect that politics can have …so I will likely not be trading on Monday morning.

…but I will be ready when the clouds lift.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Confirmed UpTrend

My interpretation of Copernicus is to be long.

Energy ETF’s are looking good to me, both XLE and OIH.

GLD is also looking good… I need to buy and hold some gold

I will see how the markets look in the morning before deciding when to move or whether to move at all

Last Monday I sold AXP, HHH and SPY.

I held onto AMZN, BIDU and AAPL and I am pleased that I did so…these may be good to hold and let my “rules” guide when to sell.

I have been doing a mid year review on dividend stocks and will be making some needed adjustments. I will sell: CFR (who needs a bank now), CIM and AGNC (no more REITS for now, but the dividends have been incredible), SWK… a bit of a disappointment compared to what I found to purchase.

I will be buying CSX (I need a rail and this one looks great), PX (Praxair, I like the business and they are doing well), XOM (Exxon Mobil, time for some energy and this one is King), BDX (medical devices), and SJM (Smuckers, an excellent company and a little more food diversification).

For evaluation of dividend stocks I sum the current yield and the 5 year dividend growth rate. Currently I have a goal for this to be 11.5% or better. For example McDonald's, which I hold, is 32.26% and Walgreen's is 30.44%. The CSX I will be adding is 42.21%. By comparison Stanley was only 9.51%

 I look for stocks that have a consistent record of earnings growth and very consistent dividend increases. time. I also review the chart and look for consistently steady price application. 

This strategy is still evolving, but working well

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AMZN -.01%, almost back to even after an early loss

BIDU  +6.28%, excellent

AAPL +10.38% stellar performance, simply stellar

ETF's for a trade are:
None for now
Have a great week…opportunities may abound for the brave, be ready!

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