Sunday, April 15, 2012

Still Cautious, Cash is Looking Better and Better

Which is better missing a gain or taking a loss?

I think most will agree we hate to miss a gain, but that is preferable to taking a loss. It is true you don't have an actual loss until you sell, but getting significantly down in a stock can take forever to recover from, so it is best to minimize losses. I have learned this lesson and do my best to minimize losses and try to take some gains along the way. Priceline and Apple have been outstanding performers, but it is doubtful this will last forever. The Box Theory will now let these drop a little but will tell me when to sell. RGR has a lot of potential, but again this can not be expected to hold up forever. 

I have been cautious for some time, but it seems to be warranted and I continue to be so.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 1.99%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Up Trend Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems is still showing to be long in the market (but not 100% in all systems), however Money Flows are now down in 3/3 portfolios.

Note: I am considering buying the top 5 of these as a basket when IBD turns up…and I know I already own 3 out of the 5, but it seems like an interesting strategy, buy the top 5 when IBD turns is positive and let the stocks tell you when to sell using the box theory.
What will I do?

I had to sell JBL  since, my last writing as it was looking poorly and I did sell most of the global ETF's as they no longer looked attractive.

I did buy RGR, but I have no intentions of further additions for now.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  (4) buys for +37.57% so (2) in the bank and in the box 7.57
RGR  +.20%
+25.50%, continuing to climb so (1) in the bank and in the box 10.50

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD (3) buys for -2.41%
IBB   (2) buys for +.29%
EWY -.47% Watching!

I hope you have a great week.

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