Sunday, November 18, 2012

Twinkies or Unions

So what’s up with Hostess shutting down? 

No doubt their union put the last nail in the coffin, but perhaps the Twinkie is really the root cause. It’s easy to see there has been a dramatic shift toward healthy eating in the United States, myself included. I have not had a Twinkie in many years, even though Twinkies are quite tasty IMHO. The old  plasticized Ding Dongs seemed to have a strange ability to captivate, but I’m not sure why. Many, many years ago the old Devil Dog’s contrast of dry chocolate cake and the creamy center had an allure, but in time I moved on.

But perhaps it’s not the Twinkies fault as Hostess Brands has not changed its food lineup much in its 100-year history. 

Doesn’t this point to a management problem of just allowing this company to just keep plodding down the same old path? Doesn’t this always fails at some point? ….but how do you get away from the Twinkie? Out of all of these old favorites, none had a reputation for being health-food, that is the craze of today.

This was in my mind last week with some cliff induced, early-end-of-the-year-clean-up of dividend payers and the selling of KO (Coke) and MCD (McDonalds). These have been great stocks, but I was concerned about these businesses into the future with today’s focus on being healthy. Likely they can both evolve, but there are plenty of other companies on my growing watch list to consider at year end

I’m also glad I held off in buying EWH (Hong Kong), but I will keep a ready eye on it.

Last it looks like the technicians that pegged a breach S&P 500 Fibonacci number of 1396 would be a signal of a greater drop going forward. That has been happening, so being mostly in cash is good.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.574, still trending further down.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction 

Copernicus Systems: is mixed, but predominately short

Moneys Flows is down in 2 out of 3 portfolios. I looked at this closer and see that the one not down is perhaps just dragging along the bottom

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

ETF’s for a trade are:
GLD  .65% …more gold might be a good idea, even after we go over the cliff 

FRAN -27.02% will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
AAPL  -17.25% (and I just read that Apple is 9% of the NASDAQ)

What will I do?
I’m looking forward to a great Thanksgiving with much to be thankful for

I hope you have a great week.

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