The Market has Turned

This week we saw the DJIA break once 13K once again. This is in spite of unrest in the Middle East. It’s interesting how the finances of Greece, Italy and Spain can make our markets tremble, but the actions between Israel and there neighbors seem to have no damper at all.

I saw a nice rebound in my dividend payers and AAPL. Is Apple now back to the nice gains of the past? Who knows, but it should continue someday.

What did I see in my weekend review?
 The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.69, now up a bit.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is now at: Confirmed Up Trend 

Copernicus Systems: is Long

Moneys Flows is still down in 2 out of 3 portfolios, but portfolio prices are up.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  2.91%

Doghouse:

FRAN -21.21% saw a bit of a much needed recovery, but will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
AAPL  -10.38% and a nice recovery here as well….also much needed.

What will I do?

Well, in spite of the market turn we still have the cliff ahead.

EWH, EWW, GILD, YHOO, FLT, RGR are all looking good. A quick view of this list makes me think that taking initial positions in EWH, EWW and RGR might suit me just fine for this week

I hope you have a great week.

Twinkies or Unions

So what’s up with Hostess shutting down? 

No doubt their union put the last nail in the coffin, but perhaps the Twinkie is really the root cause. It’s easy to see there has been a dramatic shift toward healthy eating in the United States, myself included. I have not had a Twinkie in many years, even though Twinkies are quite tasty IMHO. The old  plasticized Ding Dongs seemed to have a strange ability to captivate, but I’m not sure why. Many, many years ago the old Devil Dog’s contrast of dry chocolate cake and the creamy center had an allure, but in time I moved on.

But perhaps it’s not the Twinkies fault as Hostess Brands has not changed its food lineup much in its 100-year history. 

Doesn’t this point to a management problem of just allowing this company to just keep plodding down the same old path? Doesn’t this always fails at some point? ….but how do you get away from the Twinkie? Out of all of these old favorites, none had a reputation for being health-food, that is the craze of today.

This was in my mind last week with some cliff induced, early-end-of-the-year-clean-up of dividend payers and the selling of KO (Coke) and MCD (McDonalds). These have been great stocks, but I was concerned about these businesses into the future with today’s focus on being healthy. Likely they can both evolve, but there are plenty of other companies on my growing watch list to consider at year end

I’m also glad I held off in buying EWH (Hong Kong), but I will keep a ready eye on it.

Last it looks like the technicians that pegged a breach S&P 500 Fibonacci number of 1396 would be a signal of a greater drop going forward. That has been happening, so being mostly in cash is good.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.574, still trending further down.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction 

Copernicus Systems: is mixed, but predominately short

Moneys Flows is down in 2 out of 3 portfolios. I looked at this closer and see that the one not down is perhaps just dragging along the bottom

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  .65% …more gold might be a good idea, even after we go over the cliff 

Doghouse:

FRAN -27.02% will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
AAPL  -17.25% (and I just read that Apple is 9% of the NASDAQ)

What will I do?

I’m looking forward to a great Thanksgiving with much to be thankful for

I hope you have a great week.

Selling, Selling, Selling

One day this week I took advantage of ALGN and ALXN being up a little and said adios. I was reminded that if I would not buy these….why should own them?  Selling at an overall loss is painful, but it felt better after it was done and it was long overdue.

I will also sell FRAN, but will give it until approximately December 1 to see if it can do a little pre-Christmas recovery dance.

That same day I decided to sell EWG (Germany) and EWW (Mexico) with a plan to buy EWH (Hong Kong) which is much stronger. After doing the selling I decided to wait and see what January brings before taking a position in EWH.

I continued selling with some end of the year clean-up of dividend payers by selling KO (Coke) and MCD (McDonalds). These have been great stocks, but I am concerned about these businesses going into the future with the focus on being healthy. Likely both can evolve if need be, but there are plenty of other companies on my growing watch list to consider at year end. This year end’s fiscal cliff is just too ominous to wait for selling later.

I had a nice profit in an AAPL trade earlier in the year in a cash account and realized I could offset some of this gain by taking a loss by selling CHD in the same cash account. I can repurchase  CHD (which I still want to own) after 30 days has passed and avoid the wash sell window.

This is likely a great time to buy more AAPL, but once again I decided to wait until January and see the result of the impending fiscal cliff. In the mean time the AAPL I purchased a few weeks ago deserves to be in the somewhat cleaned up doghouse.

We did breach S&P 500 Fibonacci number of 1396. This had been cited by a technician as a signal of a greater drop going forward. The selling I did this week is making me more comfortable., but I know at some point this market will take off...perhaps with a roar, so I will be watching.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.61 Down?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction 

Copernicus Systems: is mixed, but global ETF's such as EWH look very strong. I aslo see EWC, FXI, EEM and EFA rising in the rankings...perhaps the global ETF's will soon be a good place to invest...perhaps they are now. Collectively they don't have the fiscal cliff, but they could be affected by ours.

Moneys Flows is down in 2 out of 3 portfolios

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD  1.82% has turned around once again; somewhat ominous, but predicable 

Doghouse:

FRAN -25.60% will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
AAPL  -14.21%

What will I do?

Waiting and watching. I will also be looking to see if something else that needs to be sold.

I hope you have a great week.

Will getting past the election help?

I did sell IWM and SLV this week and picked up EWW (Mexico) and a little more AAPL. The EWW was a good idea, the APPL …not so much. 

The doghouse stocks are getting worse and a little crowded. This looks like a bad idea that has gotten worse. The idea was to hold on to stocks that have turned south until they recover ...as long as they are profitable companies. Fortunately these are small positions. 

We still have the S&P 500 clear of a drop to 1396. This had been cited by a technician as one of the Fibonacci numbers that if breached, will signal a greater drop going forward. 

What will happens on Wednesday after the election outcome is firmed up? …at least it should be decided by then.  We know the market does not like unknowns. Regardless of the election outcome the market will have this unknown out of the way and hopefully it will be looking forward with a less cloudy future.

I don’t often talk about the dividend payer portfolio but it has been doing well. As the year end approaches I have been considering replacements for a couple of past stellar holdings KO and MCD. One has to wonder how well Coke and McDonalds will do going into the future. With both of companies products being out of favor by a growing group focusing on healthier lifestyles I would like to find replacement for them. I suspect that both will do just fine but I will be looking for a good dividend payer to replacement them with…if possible.

What did I see in my weekend review?
The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 1.73

IBD (Investor Business Daily) is at: Market In Correction

Copernicus Systems: is short but mixed

Moneys Flows is down in 2 out of 3 portfolios

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

ETF’s for a trade are:

GLD -1.35%

EWG -1.65%

EWW  +1.29%

Doghouse:

ALXN -21.28%  
FRAN -17.88% will stick with the earlier plan and sell it on or before Dec 1
ALGN  -30.71%
AAPL  -9.55%

What will I do?

Wait.

I hope you have a great week.