Impending Government Shutdown?

The wisdom of Ecclesiastes reminds us:

 What has been will be again,
 what has been done will be done again;
 there is nothing new under the sun.

In reality it’s impossible to predict short term what will happen in terms of a government shutdown. The current standoff makes shutdown seem inevitable however, we have sure seen this before, it’s nothing new. There is no compromise in sight and yet compromise always occurs and always has…all the way back to the formation of the country.

If a shutdown does occur it will end with some currently unacceptable compromise being readily accepted.

I have seen predictions that this week will bring chaos to the markets…but it’s “unknowns” that trouble the market and in this case a compromise seems likely to occur just as it always does, even if a shutdown does have to be endured.

Perhaps it would be helpful if Congressional members also felt some financial pain. No doubt  resolution and compromise would speedier if this were the case, however their pay in unaffected by government shutdown.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield continues a little slide now to 2.62 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long, but mixed

Moneys Flows:  still positive with 1/3 trending higher and portfolio price all pointing higher

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -3.36%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +6.99% 

IWM +7.52%

IBB +4.25%

What will I do?

I did not add to positions in IBB, QQQ and IWM this week. If volatility does occur this week, these are the places I will consider adding.

I hope you have a great week.

Gold!

A wonderful point is made about gold in the classic "Treasure of the Sierra Madre", when an old fellow explains “Gold ain’t good for nothing except making jewelry and gold teeth”…but this is in a flop house full of men who were drawn away from reality by the prospect of finding the precious metal.

Gold and the gold miners shot up this week immediately after it was determined that the Fed would not taper it's bond buying. The jump faded quickly, I'm not sure why, perhaps reality sunk in that the Fed would indeed taper someday.

In the past I thought of gold as a hedge of protection…but I have learned it is not. Some say it’s a hedge against inflation…I’m not sure about that either. Some say it’s a hedge against chaos, but the calamity that occurred in New Orleans showed that bottled water was a better hedge and some project that ammunition will be a better hedge in the future.

So I don’t know what gold it other than it’s still highly desirable. Its future price is indeterminate to me, but the allure of gold continues and it seems that gold miners might be better place as they are striving to cut cost and bring back unprofitable mines into operation.

Barrick gold, ABX, seems to be undervalued by comparison with GLD.

Barrick does pay a modest dividend of 1.1%. The dividend was around 3% before being cut as Barrick’s finances were being cleaned up. I would hope that the larger dividend would be returned in time.

I sure don’t know how where the price of ABX will end up and I likely won’t be adding any more, but I won’t be selling yet either. It may be time to just out it away as a longer term holding and be patient.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield continues a little slide now back to 2.73 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long, but mixed

Moneys Flows:  still positive with 1/3 trending higher and portfolio price all pointing higher

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -2.94%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +6.88% 

IWM +7.53%

IBB +3.84%

What will I do?

I could be adding IBB and QQQ, perhaps I should add IWM

I hope you have a great week.

Long

Last week I noted “…. I just don’t see missiles getting launched, so I’m looking for something else to occur to show it is no longer needed, but I have no idea what that might be. Perhaps the missile launch will simply be replaced with some other ultimatum.”

I had no idea that a Sunday afternoon conclusion would be validated so quickly or that it would be Russian intervention that would stall things. This weekend, attention to Syria already seems to be fading as it now seems resolution will drag on for a long, long time…if ever.

Last week I felt the need to get more info the market, for some reason I seem less interested this week, but it does seem that the correct position is to be Long.

IBD cites “Stocks rose modestly Friday despite weaker-than-expected consumer confidence and retail sales data” and “For the week, the Dow rose 3%; the IBD 50, 2.7%; the S&P 500, 2%; and the Nasdaq, 1.7%. Apple's 7% drop for the week hurt the Nasdaq.

I suspect we will hear more from Carl Icahn soon. I don’t hear anyone predicting Icahn will do anything major at Apple, but he is unpredictable and no doubt see an opportunity in undervalued APPL.  He has also been ruthless at times in the past and Apple immense size probably is not the issue that some think, it just means he needs assistance or leverage.

I was able to begin adjustments to my dividend payers and price growers. I had already sold DPS and KSU.

This week I trimmed positions in CVX, GE, GWW and HRL to make room for SBUX, BMY and TSCO. I hope to add KMB, NKSH, CB and TCAP

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield now 2.898 %

IBD (Investor Business Daily) switched to: Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long, but mixed

Moneys Flows:  still positive with 1/3 trending higher and portfolio price all pointing higher

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

ABX -7.58%, normally time to cut losses, but this one may be well worth taking as a long term holding. My friend Jim was kind enough to point out a recent Barron’s article is likely to result in some favorable action. I have not read the Barron’s article but I have seen suggestions that this action could be soon. Thanks for the tip Jim!

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +5.63% 

IWM +5.74%

IBB +2.66%

What will I do?

Try to complete Dividend Payers and Price Growers adjustments other than that…. I’m just not sure.

I hope you have a great week.