Sunday, October 30, 2011

Time for a little profit taking tomorrow

I will be selling BBH at a decent profit but mainly due the QQQ looking stronger now.

Also I have taken modest profits a couple of times with VZ trades recently, will be looking to increase the risk in this if the opportunity presents itself again. These are very short-term positions as the stock has been channeling. 

I did buy RSU early last week but became uncomfortable with it and sold it for a negligible gain.

I still may be ready to jump aboard but with the more conservative  SPY if the market momentum begins to build.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.31, up this week.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is showing uniformity in two of their systems, in my interpretation. But pointing to bonds in another.

Money flows are still up…a good sign and once again many stocks looked interesting.  TXN, KLAC and ARBA are still looking good with gains in all three. I may add BIIB to make the stock trio a quartet

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL  +13.64,  – .30 %, recovering this week.
KLAC  +9.66 %…a nice gain this week
TXN +2.97 %, now positive
ARBA +6.91 %
ETF’s for a trade are:
GLD –1.54%, +8.74 % recovering
HHH + .95 %; –5.03 % down this week but I will still hold
BBH +6.07%, +7.11 % a nice profit in both buys, but adios for now
AGG +. 34%
I hope you have a good week

Sunday, October 23, 2011

The Market still does not seem safe or comfortable

Well in all honestly I am not sure the market is ever safe or comfortable. It is always a risk and that is what can bring reward. But for now I will wait for some upward momentum before risking more. If we do see a true breakout I will be ready to jump aboard with SPY and perhaps my old friend RSU

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now at 2.20

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend.

Copernicus Systems is still showing mixed directions in their systems, at least in my interpretation. I did add additional HHH and BBH this week and I am comfortable with what I have but will not add more this week.

Money flows are still up…a good sign and once again many stocks looked interesting but the initial positions I took last week in TXN, KLAC and ARBA are all I want for now

I did get my additional position in AAPL, but I bought it too soon and therefore bought it poorly.

Last week I mentioned confusion in seeing one of the Copernicus systems moving from cash to a bond ETF; AGG…I am not confused now, but not comfortable as it is bearish for stocks to see this happen.

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL  +10.28 % down badly from last week; – 3.28 %, my new position
KLAC  +. 28 %
TXN -.42 %
ARBA +3.31 %
ETF’s for a trade are:
GLD first purchase –7.40 %; second purchase+ 2.26 %
HHH + 3.45 %; –2.68 %
BBH +4.46 %;  +3.45 %
I hope you have a good week

Sunday, October 16, 2011

I am not confident that we have seen the bottom... but

I am not confident that we have seen the bottom in this recent down turn. We may yet dip again, but last weeks venture back into the market was good, so I will continue with another cautious step.

My little trade in  VZ did work out and I will be looking for another dip to re-enter. However, this may not occur as VZ may now just be trending upward rather than channeling.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield continues a modest rise, now 2.23… I am a little concerned and a little confused with what I see in happening in one of the Copernicus systems…more on that later.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has now changed its outlook to show: Market in Confirmed Uptrend. Unfortunately I did not catch when this occurred

Copernicus Systems is still showing mixed directions in their systems, however I will take additional positions in both HHH and  BBH , have been pleased with the first steps taken last week.

Many stocks looked interesting but I narrowed my choices down to: TXN, KLAC and ARBA and I will likely take initial positions in these as money flows are now up. I am also looking for more AAPL having recently missed a good chance to do so.

I mentioned earlier that I am a little confused with seeing one of the Copernicus systems moving from cash to a bond ETF; AGG…but I am following this one closely so I will take an initial position to follow suit.

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL + 18.43%, what a great company this is
ETF’s for a trade are:
GLD first purchase –5.15%
GLD second purchase+ 4.75%
HHH + 6.59
BBH +1.33
I hope you have a good week


Sunday, October 9, 2011

Time to stick my toe back in the water.

Am I a little anxious to get back into the market in a positive way? You bet. I may be a little too eager, but I will re-enter with a baby step on Monday.

I have already entered a small trade for VZ, but that is a learning experience to see if I can squeak out a small gain by trading the cycles. One of my friends has mastered this using T most recently and some REITs earlier. I may not be able to devote the time needed for this, but decided to gain some experience.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Now that I have moved into bonds via a total bond index fund, it is time to watch interest rates. The 10-yr Treasury yield may be a good tool, it settled above the 2.00% threshold for the first time in two weeks and ended Friday's trade at 2.068%, (not a good sign) . I am plowing new ground with bonds, and I know bond value can drop as interest rates rise, so I will be watching this.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still shows: Market in Correction

Copernicus Systems is showing mixed directions in their systems, however I saw some positive things in the USA ETF’s that convinces me to take a small initial position in HHH or BBH or both.

Some stocks looked interesting: JBL, KLAC, MRVL, ORCL, IBM, ARBA and  RHT…but I'm just watching these for now. Even though portfolio prices are up, money flows are down.

This week Copernicus sent our 3rd Quarter one-year and five-year results. They are posted here: http://www.advanced-stock-selection.com/2011Q3-results-table.htm  TSPselect has done quite well recently, but look at the 5 year gain with Switch

 Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
AAPL + 3.78%
ETF’s for a trade are:
I closed positions in both SH and GDX last week and bought more GLD
GLD first purchase -7.60%
GLD second purchase+ 2.05%
I hope you have a good week

Sunday, October 2, 2011

You can see it at the pump

This weekend I saw local gasoline prices drop below $3/gal. How long has it been since that has occurred? …less than two years I think, but it aligns with seeing energy ETF’s fighting for last place in the rankings. Also low in the rankings for some time has been the German ETF:  EWG and the financial ETF: XLF.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

First looking at charts for the general market I still see the lateral movement that began late Feb. The recent waterfall drop interrupted this, but it just lowered the graph…. this market is just going sideways, but with lots of waves.

Perhaps the potential of another waterfall drop still exists. However, many companies are going about their business and making profits so it should not be this way, but for now European events with their fears and hints of solutions just keep driving these waves.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) shows: Market in Correction

Copernicus Systems is showing to be short the market. Two out of three money flows are now again trending downwards.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AAPL  + 7.01%

ETF’s for a trade are:

SH   +. 11%
GLD  -8.25%
GDX –15.44%

GDX , the ETF of gold mining stocks should recover, but it has now dropped below my most liberal  allowance and will have to be sold.

In my last post I mentioned the purpose of SH was to hedge against  some mutual stock funds that are long in the market and that I was looking at going into a bond fund. This is in process but not yet complete. I may have been premature in reducing my positions in SH a couple of weeks ago and will be watching this. However I am more confident in the bond fund now, as it has a positive total return which few stocks funds are achieving lately.
 
I hope you have a good week