..…A Little Hasty

Last weekend I pointed out that since mid February the market has actually been going sideways but with some significant up and down cycles.

I think this was, and is, correct ...but I sure missed something obvious and important. 

This was that there was good chance of the market currently being headed to one of those mini down cycles. Unfortunately I re-entered with some purchases and it looks like I now need to correct that action.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Uptrend Under Pressure

Last week I was mistaken when I said Copernicus “is now showing to be short … in my interpretation (This does bother me a little)”  …but that does seem to be correct for this week

On Monday I picked up AXP, AMZN, ARBA, BIDU, but did not pick up QCOM …I also added HHH and picked up AAPL and SPY  .

I will likely sell all or at least most of these on Monday…will decide the final resolution in the morning

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

AXP -1.39%

AMZN -1.69%

ARBA -5.77%

BIDU  +1.40%

AAPL +2.41%

ETF's for a trade are:

XLV  -2.2%

IBB  -.57%

HHH -2.21%

Have a great week.

Market Direction is Mixed

Last weekend I said the market had turned and for most this past week that did appear to be the case. Even with the pop on Thursday and subsequent drop on Friday a nice gain occurred for the week…a good portion of it on Monday morning.  I hope we see a nice pop on this Monday as well

Trying to get the bigger picture I looked back and it appears that since mid February the market has actually been going sideways but with some significant up and down cycles. Will this continue? …hard to see that anything has significantly changed so perhaps it will and this is influencing my thinking

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Confirmed Up Trend.

Copernicus continues to be a little mixed, but is now showing to be short … in my interpretation. (This does bother me a little)

I did not complete all of my planed trades last week. I did sell GLD and  SH.  I did buy  XLV (healthcare) and IBB (biotech) but was unable to add  HHH (internet related)… I plan to do so on Monday as it looks even better now

With what I perceive as a cyclic sideways move of the market having occurred I have been looking for stocks that have been performing better than the market. I found quite a few of interest and have thus far narrowed the list down to AXP, AMZN, ARBA, BIDU and QCOM. Not sure what I will do on Monday, but I may buy a little of each and let my sell rules sort them out in time.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time, but hope to add as noted above

ETF's for a trade are:

None held at this time, none planed

Normal ETF's:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

XLV  -.56%

 IBB  +1.48%

Plan to add the HHH that I failed to pick up last week

Have a great week.

The Market Has Turned

July 4^th Weekend so this will be brief, but the Market appears to have turned. Last week I “sensed” that the market was turning. I try not to act on these senses at this point, but it has turned. Let’s hope it continues

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now indicates in their Current Outlook as: Uptrend Resumes.

Copernicus is a little mixed, but is showing long… in my interpretation.

Energy and Financials do not look good, but HHH (internet related) looks good and so does XLV (healthcare) and IBB (biotech)… I will be diving into all of these at least for initial positions 

I think it is time to step out of gold and will close the short position taken in SH

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time, will be looking at this more as time allows ...if the upward trend continues

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD +1.46% gain, will sell on Tuesday

SH  -5.30% Ouch! It seems this always happens when I go short, but it is insurance and thankfully only a 1/3 position was taken

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time, but will be diving into HHH,  XLV,  and IBB 

Have a great week.

Still Waiting, Cash is Good, But “Sensing” Change is coming

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Well the Market did poorly on Friday, being down in volume. This is usually not a good sign, but it was Friday

The Dow sure likes to hug 12K either just above as it was last week, or just below as it was at this weeks close on Friday

IBD (Investor Business Daily) once again continues their Current Outlook as: Market in Correction.

Copernicus is where I am sensing rotation, but perhaps it is just confusion on my part as all of the systems still point to short, at least that is my interpretation. Trying to glean some good news I see a slower drop in money flows, the key indicator they use…but it still dropped. 

Even gold has suffered in sympathy to the market. I am keeping an eye on Japan, as one would think it would crawl up one day. I continue to watch energy drop…it would have been good to have shorted this in some way

I did not add to my initial into SH position (SH is an inverse of the S & P 500) so I am still 1/3 into that and I see no reason to make any changes or additions.

As indicated for the past couple of weeks, if the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services.

…However I “sense” these will not be needed.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD +4.23%, second purchase +.72% …up a little from last week

SH  +.12% almost no change at all

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time

Have a great week.

On The Sidelines

Waiting is painful for me. Not much of a wait yet, but I prefer to be in the market, (assuming it has upward momentum) rather than on the sidelines. With the lack of clear direction I need to wait…and I just do not see a clear direction.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

Well the Market did improve slightly this week.

On Friday we saw what appeared to be a solid bounce with the DOW closing at 12,004, which sounds good…and it is good. But looking at the details we see a pop at the open and a modest and slightly noisy decline for the rest of the day. The S & P 500 showed similar action and the NASDAQ was actually down for Friday

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues their Current Outlook as: Market in Correction.

Copernicus was not available to me as of this posting. I am assuming the systems there did not see a change from last week, which was pretty bearish. If I see something different when it becomes available I will update this post.

So what should one do to be cautious this week? Last week I said “Cash is good and getting neutral is probably a good plan.”  That still sounds good at this point

I did complete my selling, saying adios to EWG and IBB .

I began legging into SH.,with a 1/3 initial position.  SH is a "helpful" ETF that is an inverse of the S & P 500. This was not enough to make me fully neutral and during the week this appeared at times to be too little and at other times too much. However, looking at the change in value below you will see I don’t have a need to add or decrease this on Monday

As indicated last week, if the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services.

I will note that most of my dividend stocks appear to be holding up nicely, but dividend stocks are for another purpose and not for trading

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD 6.85%, second purchase 3.25% …up a little from last week

SH  0% change…in at $42.56 and closed Friday at $42.56, so I am right where I started on this one

Normal ETF's:

None held at this time

Have a great week and I am still hoping for an upward turn…I do not like shorting

Should we head for cover?

Well this does not look too good.

So what did I see in my weekend review?

The S & P 500 has been down for 6 straight weeks, not a “horrible” amount but down 6.8% The NASDAQ has been down a greater amount.

I can look at a one year chart of the DOW and say that this is a normal little correction with the low points aligning nicely with earlier lows. See chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c

However in looking at the 5-year chart of the DOW it could be the start of a steep downtrend. See chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c

Which is right? I do not know, but we will see in time, so I need to be prepared

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues their Current Outlook  as : Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems notes that all three of their Money Flows are now negative and every system they have is bearish. Ouch!

So what should one do to be cautious? Cash is good and getting neutral is probably a good plan.

Those that read this blog (and thanks for reading and sharing this with your friends) know I have been selling recently. 

I will finishing selling and certain I am “neutral” by taking positions in an ETF that is an inverse of the S & P 500, SH.

This is to cover some mutual funds that are difficult to move in and out of (I do not like mutual funds for this reason) and likewise to balance the dividend stocks that I do not wish to sell

If the selling momentum firms, I will be looking at QID, a nifty inverse of 100 largest stocks of the NASDAQ. I will also look at REW an inverse on Technology, and FAZ a wild, wild 3x inverse of Financial Services

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None held at this time

ETF's for a trade are:

(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GLD 6.36%, second purchase 2.77% …down from last week a little

EWG .19% this formally strong Germany ETF is almost underwater, will sell on Monday 

Normal ETF's:

IBB  -4.09% uncle, UNCLE I am out on Monday

Have a great week and I hope the market does turn upward…but hope is not enough

I Cannot Blame It All On Bad Timing

Well my timing was bad, very bad for last week’s purchases. I saw the “follow though rally” on Tuesday as being a turn in the market and made some purchases of LULU, AMGN and AXP on Wednesday morning. Turn it did, but the wrong direction.

But I cannot blame it all on timing. I just did not think these though long enough, especially LULU. In hindsight I did not have a good reason to buy this other than it was at the top of the IBD 50 and had been for some time…not a good reason at all for a momentum investor.

At this point the losses are not horrible, as you will see, but now it is time to summarize what the market is saying now and look at what to do on Monday

So what did I see in my weekend review?

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has their Current Outlook  as : Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems is pretty clear this week, go short.

What is the Copernicus System? Well just as Copernicus ability to grasp that the Earth goes round the sun, could fundamentally change people’s view of things far beyond science, the Copernicus Systems has helped me greatly with my investing, perhaps more than anything else I have studied and followed.

Copernicus ranks the ETF’s and stocks followed each week and this is what I primarily review each week. Here is a link to the site. A free trial subscription is available. http://www.advanced-stock-selection.com/index.htm

In summary I will be selling and getting ready to do some shorting, likely by buying SH which is an ETF that effectively corresponds to the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500. For the ETF’s I will hold for another week I will follow the box theory: When to Buy and Sell and The Box Theory

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(All gains shown are the total since purchase)

LULU -3.98% …a poor choice it was, my fault

AMGN  -3.20% farewell

AXP  -.4.03 % goodbye

ETF's for a trade are:

GLD 7.06%, second purchase 3.44% …will hold as these continue to creep upward, nice gains thus far

EWY 3.82%. A nice little gain and will sell on Monday. Thank you Korea

EWG 3.00% will hold this Germany ETF for another week.

Normal ETF's:

IBB  -.95% will hold and watch for another week

HHH  -3.69%  Adios Amigo, will see you again I am sure

Have a great week.