Happy, Happy

It has probably been obvious that I have been bullish on the markets recently, but next week could be telling.

Recent headlines note that on Friday IBM was down 2.25%, AAPL down 2%, mighty GOOG down 1.15%, once mighty MSFT down a staggering 11% and INTC down 1%.

However on this same Friday I noticed a longtime fav holding of mine, DOV up 2.01% continuing its little spike and another long term holding GE up 4.61%.

Its all about earnings or rather perception of earnings isn't it?

On Monday we have a report due on existing home sales and earnings from NFLX, MCD, TXN and HAL…I would guess the net of this would be good news…why not?

But.... I do not have a crystal ball and have learned not to trust those that do.

If the uptrend continues I will be happy, if it stumbles I will be happy to sell VXX, so I am Happy, Happy

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield dropped a little more, now to 2.49%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Market in Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems continues: Long, but still mixed IMHO.

Moneys Flows: Copernicus portfolios stubbornly still down in money flow for 2/3 portfolios, but all portfolio net prices are still in positive territory.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   +6.07%, so reminiscent of the old YHOO

PCLN -1.15%

BIIB +2.73%

QLGC +1.08%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +93% 

XLF +4.52% 

IBB +11.22% Biotech is really working for me

SPY +3.68%

IWM +5.23% (I see in my sloppiness I have missed reporting on this for a few weeks)

XLY -.37%

What will I do?

I was able to add PCLN, BIIB, QLGC and more YHOO.

I think that is enough for now and I don’t see anything new for me, so if opportunities arise it will be to add more to existing holdings. That said I am  looking to sell QLGC if I can get a little more gain.

I hope you have a great week.

I like what I see!

The Up-Trend from Mid-June continues

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield dropped a little to 2.6%

IBD (Investor Business Daily) now has: Market in Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems continues: Long, but still mixed IMHO.

Moneys Flows:  All of the portfolios are still in positive territory…..but now one is finally trending upwards

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   +5.9%, a nice turnaround

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ +1.89% 

XLF +2.61% 

IBB +10.10%

SPY +2.66%

IWM  +3.6%

What will I do?

The continuation of the uptrend has now turned all of the positions for a trade positive…. what a difference a few weeks can make.

The reload of the VXX, which moves inversely to the market, is now looking poorly. It is difficult to see a profit come out of this in the near future, so I will be looking for any reasonable opportunity to off load it now.

The stocks that make up the IBB have really been cooking and as a momentum investor I have been liking like what I see in bitotech for few weeks now.

But being a momentum investor I like what I see in a number of stocks and ETF’s

I like ETF’s XLY, EWJ and I would still like to add more IWM

For stocks I still like PCLN, but now like SANM, BIIB, GILD, MRVL, QLGC and TXN

I hope you have a great week.

Optimism

Last week I noted with optimism that my guess was: “the bull market resumes shortly” …So far so good as IBD notes:

For the week, the Nasdaq added 2.2%; the S&P 500, 1.6%; and the Dow, 1.5%. The S&P 600 rose 3.2%

They also point out that July has launched decent rallies in the past.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is really climbing now at 2.71

IBD (Investor Business Daily) still has: Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems has switched to: Long, but still mixed IMHO.

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -.38%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -1.79% 

XLF -.07% 

IBB +3.93%.

SPY -1.96%

What will I do?

This week I did reload some VXX. My confidence in picking up small gains with this index is gaining. It seems to work adequately with market orders. This also seems to offer some insurance and helps to brighten those down days by being available to turn some profits.

The holdings for a trade are still mostly red, but IBB is now positive and hopefully the laggards will have their day soon. The rapidly rising interest rates should mean the banks will be able to earn more and this in turn should boost XLF

I am comfortable with the current holdings for trades, but XLY and PCLN still deserve that closer look.

I am overdue for a complete review of dividend payers and  hope to comment on this in the next few weeks. I have done a preliminary review of 5 year price gain for this group and I see that the following have been outstanding: GWW, KSU, SJM, CHD, LEG, LOW and WAG.

  

The method used is to look for:

•    Profitable US companies (positive EPS)
•   Consistently pay a dividend
•   Consistently grow the dividend over time
•  Have a great 5 year dividend growth rate
•  Outperform the S &P 500 over a 1 year or 5 year span….or have an outstanding dividend

I hope you have a great week.

What’s Next?

What’s Next? ....I am guessing the bull market resumes shortly, but this is a guess tainted by optimism.

IBD headline notes: “Michael Kors Up, Dollar Tree Down As Luxury Dominates”.

Perhaps the market trend will be seen in the XLY, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector. It has had an uptrend in place since June 24, but will it continue this time? A price above 57 and on toward 58 may not point to consumer confidence in general, but it has been steadily rising since May 2009 but I suspect when it finally gets through 58 the market will be in strong rally mode.

The mighty Nordstrom, JWN has also been outperforming the market since May 2009 and seems to be ready to get back to doing so.

I’m not sure how it is related but Shares of Noodles & Co. soared on the first day of its initial public offering Friday and it’s good to see an IPO ripping higher.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.48%

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems: Short

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -2.52%

AGNC: Sold at a loss, could have lessened this with a little more courage, but knowledge was gained.

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -3.56% 

XLF -1.96% 

IBB -.82% my best turnaround may be in biotech.

SPY -1.96%

What will I do?

I am still in the red on everything for a trade, but a little less so this week. I am ready for some of these to become good trades and profits to be taken, just need to continue patience.

XLY and PCLN deserve a closer look, time for both to run…but I will wait.

I hope you have a great week.