Back In Again On Monday

This a has been a good week and a busy week, and it looks like I will once again be going back into the market

I expected last week to be a down week and exactly the opposite happened. On Wednesday the little mini rally led IBD to change their market outlook to “ Market In Confirmed Uptrend”

In advance of this I picked up more GLD , took a couple of positions in silver with SLW , a Canadian silver company and in  AGQ a 2X leverage silver ETF.  I also moved into the 3X levered financial inverse FAZ . After Wednesday I thought I had chosen and timed this poorly, however all but FAZ ended up nicely for the week.

 I’m sure glad I did not go short, but that may happen in the near future, at least folks with greater forward vision seem to think so.

What did I see in the weekend review?

As mentioned earlier IBD’s Market Current Outlook shows “Market Resumes Uptrend” 

My interpretation of the Copernicus Systems is to be long...so I will with an initial position into RSU ,  a leverage version of the S & P 500

Biotech continues to looks good. I will pick up both IBB and BIIB on Monday morning

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

 SLW .45%

ETF's for a trade are:

USO 9.57 %

GLD 4.58%

GLD second purchase 1.05%

AGQ 15.91%, WOW, this in just a few days…. normally I would sell at this gain, but since I would buy again I will reset and consider the gain to be .91% for simplicity..... I should point out this can fall just as fast, perhaps even faster

FAZ –2.59% with the change in market trend, this will have to go on Monday

Normal ETF's:

Oil and energy continue to be good to hold

 OIH 25.43% up

 XLE. 16.01% up

Have a great week!

Is It Time To Short The Market?

On Monday I did follow through with the planned selling mentioned last week.

I was little concerned that this was premature and it may still prove to be so, but on Tuesday Investors Business Daily seemed to confirm this change in direction with a change of their market outlook to “ Market Under Pressure”

So is it time for me to short the market?

What did I see in the weekend review?

As mentioned earlier IBD’s Market Current Outlook shows “ Market Under Pressure”

Copernicus has a somewhat mixed signal, but my interpretation is it pointing to be long in the market.

Therefore, it is not time for me to short…..yet.

It may soon be time to add gold with more GLD and take a position in silver with SLW , an interesting Canadian company,  or  AGQ a 2X leverage ETF and get ready to short the market with SH  and perhaps consider shorting financials with the 3X levered financial inverse FAZ

On the plus side Biotech still seems interesting as does Brazil, Mexico and Latin America in general, but let’s see how next week pans out first

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

None..nada

ETF's for a trade are:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

USO  7.58 % down a little this week

GLD 3.37% may add 

Normal ETF's:

 OIH 21.33%

 XLE. 13.38%

Have a great week!

Well I did not “Sail” for long, also Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda

Last week I indicated I was Setting Sail, but keeping the lifeboat in sight. This this week... now where is that lifeboat?

With an observation from Copernicus pointing out that their Money Flow Calculation is not supporting the recent new price highs and how this points to a possible reversal of the trend, I will be selling some Stocks, ETF’s and some Mutual funds…not everything and none of the Dividend Stocks, but definitely getting into the lifeboat of cash.

I sure don’t know how this will play out or when, but sometimes cash is a very comfortable thing, even if it means missing some gains. Also the market just is not “feeling” right…just a feeling

Speaking of missing some gains, in cleaning up some old watch lists I looked at one I had named Distressed Buys…well I did not buy any of them, but all have gained big, one very big.

I have not taken the time to see exactly when I created this list but likely around 2 years ago. Here is what I saw:

WNC up an astounding 754%

F up a staggering 449%

AA up 162 %

PCAR up 103%

Well, I obviously should have taken a little flyer on this group. I linked up the 2-year chart, so take a look at a few, if you did not

What did I see in the weekend review?

1. IBD’s Market Current Outlook  still shows  “ Confirmed Uptrend”

2. Copernicus says a lot of things but the observation of money flows trumps the others in my mind

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC  -4.75 % will sell

CMG   8.78% will sell.

EMC  5.75% will sell

AAPL   5.70% will sell

ETF's for a trade are:

USO  11.12 % will hold, but who know were the price of oil will go

GLD 2.38% may add 

IBB 4.92 % will sell

For Normal ETF's:

I still have both OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ) and  XLF but will sell XLF. I recently bought RSU, will sell it as well

Have a great week!

Setting Sail!….but keeping those lifeboats in sight and ready

Since the market now looks promising and in an upward trend I re-entered with RSU which is a 2X leveraged version of the S &P 500. I will add SPY on Monday, which simply is the S & P 500.

I did get my Dividend Stocks updated and may write more about those in the future. Since I review those differently I won’t regularly write about them

What did I see in the weekend review?

1. IBD’s Market Current Outlook switched this week to  “ Confirmed Uptrend”, I was very glad to see this.

2. My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market.

3. For stocks of interest I was attracted to BIDU, DRIV, INSP, T, BIIB, CPWR and GILD

But, the "Stocks for a Trade" bucket is pretty full so I will need to wait until some of those sell and I hope to be able to let the rules sell those... in spite of 3 out of 4 dropping for the week....Ouch! I hope they don't exit out the bottom of their boxes, but that is possible

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC 1.63%, dropped a little for the week

CMG   10.89%, an nice pop for the week, another week like this and this will get sold .

EMC  7.62%, dropped a little for the week

AAPL   8.69%, also dropped a little for the week

ETF's for a trade are:

USO  6.25% up again .

GLD down –.68 %, still soft 

IBB 3.57 % I did pick up this Biotech ETF this week with a nice start

For Normal ETF's, I still have both OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ) and  XLF

Have a great week!

Dividend Stocks and Biotech Discussed

Perhaps it is time for me to pick up Biotech, more on that later.

Dividend Stocks

This week I did began an overdue clean up on a basket of dividend stocks that I hold. I typically do not hold  bonds but for balance I like to dividend-paying companies. When I buy these I do so with the idea that I will hold them forever. Well forever is a long time. I check these each quarter to see if they are still profitable and still paying a dividend and if not I sell them. Then about once a year I do an overall review of the portfolio and see if I can find any better choices.

Since reading The Ultimate Dividend Playbook  by Josh Peters I have learned not to just focus on yield, but rather a combination of yield and dividend growth. Makes sense doesn’t it? If the dividend is growing the stock price should be following …or perhaps leading.

Of my dividend paying stocks held last year I was most impressed with the performance of  DOV and not just for the dividend. This is the type of company that is ideal for this portfolio; just a great diversified industrial machinery company that you may never have heard of. It pays a modest dividend now, but it was much higher when I bought it, but look at what the stock price has done for the past two years:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DOV+Basic+Chart&t=2y

In the dividend stocks I will be picking up I am most excited about GWW, another great industrial equipment company. This one you may be familiar as it has a catalog for maintenance type and industrial products that many use. Take a look at its two-year chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GWW&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

I sure don’t know if these gains will continue, but these are great companies that pay modest dividends and  they have increased their dividends seemingly forever

What did I see in the weekend review?

1. IBD’s Market Outlook is still  “ Market in Correction” 

2. My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, some of the signs are encouraging, but some are not.

3. For stocks of interest I was attracted to BIDU, RHT, and GRMN. And then three biotech stocks BIIB, GENZ, and GILD. I think this is the third week in a row for BIIB and Cramer has touted GILD

Well I am still not ready to go with any of these on Monday, still just watching, but Biotech is getting very interesting 

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC 1.76, at least it has turned around


CMG   3.90, a nice gain this week


EMC  10.78, very nice now.

AAPL   10.90 also nice once again


The ETF's for a trade:

USO  3.81% up this week as was expected .

GLD down –.64 %, still soft 

Biotech is showing up here as well, I may well pick up either BBH or IBB

For normal ETF's, I still have both OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ), which contiune to do well and XLF which is dipping now.

Have a great week!

Wait Wait Wait

Wait, wait, and wait. This is something I do poorly but it seems to be my conclusion as to what I must do.

 

I did some selling this week; or rather the market led me to sell… more on that later. I still do not see the need to begin legging out of the market, or the need to dive back in… so it is wait, wait and wait for now.

 

What did I see in the weekend review?

 

1. IBD’s Market Outlook is of course “ Market in Correction” 

2. My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, but a downward trend has been seen and it continues. The review of the Copernicus System is weekly and I use it for guidance as to what to do on Monday.

3. I still see stocks of interest, but fewer this week. First are some dividend paying medical related stocks: BM and PFE. Next VZ continues to looks interesting and also pays a nice dividend. BIIB caught my eye for the second week in a row…is it getting to be time for Biotech again?

Well those are all pipe dreams and simply on the watch list and the thing I am watching most is when does the market turn?.

 

I learned a little something this week and that is a true hedge is something that is a known inverse and not what “I think” might be a hedge.

This week I sold AGQ a leveraged silver ETF which had gone out of the box on the top (see Sell Rules ) and qualified in my mind for a reset to a new box. Then it dropped I had to sell it. I still managed a modest gain, but it was sure not much of a hedge

Next I sold SLW , which simply went out the bottom of its box for a loss.

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC   –2.76 %, continuing its move in the wrong direction


CMG  - .12 down again


EMC up 3.89 %, but down for the week.

AAPL   up 4.31 but also down for the week


The ETF's for a trade:


USO up .84% up a little the week, expect this to rise next week.

GLD down –.28 %, but actually moved up a little

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ),  which  are doing fine and  XLF which is dipping now.

Last I want to mention a somewhat new product from Copernicus:

 http://www.tspselect.com/

This system was designed specifically for the TSP; the government pension savings plan for U.S. Federal employees.

TSP is not available to me, but I see the need to follow the advice, which appears to be conservative, and it is off to a good start.

In place of the TSP funds some selected ETF’s and money market funds can be used…and I hope to use leveraged versions of the ETF’s when that day comes.

I do not plan on giving away the signals, but may talk about it in future blogs

Well I hope we have had our correction, perhaps we will know next week

What a Week. What did we learn?

Last weeks terrible Earthquake and resultant Tsunami had its horrible effect on Japan. The full effect of the devastation is unfortunately not yet fully revealed.  The “Day of Rage” being somewhat muted in Saudi Arabia actually drove the price of oil down. 

 

So what do I conclude in my weekend stock review?

 

First I weigh in on IBD’s Market Outlook changing to “ Market in Correction” on last Tuesday. This was expected and I assume this prediction is conservative in nature

 

On Friday I was really surprised to see all of the Markets I follow close slightly up.Unfortunately, as pointed out by some, it may be that  Japan’s misfortune is expected to have a positive effect on our economy as they begin recovery  and later rebuilding

 

My interpretation of the Copernicus System continues to be long in the Market, but a downward trend is  seen for the near term, just not enough to get me legging out of the Market…yet

 

In this weeks review of stocks a very large number show interest: BA, BMY, CVX, KO, DIS, XOM, MMM, PFE, VZ, CTXS, JCOM, NTES, ALTR, BIIB, DELL, GRMN and GILD. 

 

But until the market direction is clearly pointed upward I will not put new money to work. (I am a momentum investor not a value investor)

 

The hedges that I put in place are not working, comments on that to follow

My "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

(Gains shown are the total since purchase)

KLAC up .17 %, absolutely hammered this week


CMG  up 2.29 % down modestly


EMC up 7.78 % holding okay

AAPL   up 11.04 % also holding okay

SLW down 4.7% the silver trade for a hedge, surprisingly downward action for the week, but it is recovering




The leveraged ETF's for a trade:


AGQ up 14.66 % This is a leveraged silver ETF, up modestly and near the sell or rest point

USO up .15%  a straight play on the price of oil, falling from last week as oil fell.

GLD down –1.38 %, another hedge that is not working, perhaps gold just got a little to far ahead of itself, or perhaps many are raising cash

Having the  Sell Rules manage these takes the pressure off trying to figure out what actions to take, I can let the market do that

For normal ETF's, I still have both  OIH and XLE. (oil related ETF's ),  which  are doing fine and  XLF which continues to actually do fairly well.

It sure seems to me that the Market wants now continue the two year upward trend, but if that was a correction it was not much of one…so caution is the word at least short term

Hope you have a good week.