The Best Defense Is Cash On The Sidelines.

This week IBD notes: “Stocks Notch Fourth Down Week In Past Five Weeks”, separately they advised:  “The Best Defense Is Cash On The Sidelines”

This week we saw the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit a 15-month peak. This in turn led to the problem with utilities as seen in the ETF, XLU which slid 1.3%, cutting its year-to-date gain to 7.4%.

This is a good reminder that there is no guaranteed safety in "defensive" plays. Any position that has risk can fall. But good dividend payers that are long term holdings does it really matter at all?  If you own it for the dividend, dividend growth and long term price gain, does the price change in a few weeks matter at all?

Last week I noted I could not remember having all holdings for a trade in a negative position. This week did nothing but exacerbate that. Likewise I have to remind myself that no corrections last forever. This one could be over, but only time will tell for certain.

I did add IWM this week that I have wanted to pick up for some time. 

I also added the REIT; AGNC. 

All of the positions for a trade except AGNC are now protected with stop losses to limit to total loss to a range of 7 to 8%. 

I only intended to own AGNC until just before the X-date and pick up the gain that occurs then. This may still be the best plan, but this could be turned into a long term investment. It pays a very nice dividend currently of around 18%, but it is decreasing the dividend and the share price has also decreased. I don’t have a lot of expense with REIT’s

AGNC does not have a long term record but the business seems simple enough and the reason for the drops seems understandable. What I don’t know is how much more will the dividend drop and how quickly will this occur?

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.51 up 3.93%.

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has switched to: Market in Correction.

Copernicus Systems: Short.
Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -4.11%

AGNC -9.25%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -4.70%

XLF -3.62% 

IBB -3.84%

SPY -2.51%

What will I do?

With my general optimism on business, I won’t be selling my positions and running for the sidelines. I will let the market decide by letting my stop losses continue. The four down weeks may have been enough of a correction and it it goes down from here the stops will take me to the sidelines.

Dealing with the REIT…not sure, will watch it up until Tuesday and decide then.

Long term holdings such as dividend payers… just setting tight. I don’t let market conditions concern me at all, just profitability and dividend growth.

I hope you have a great week.

Some Buying, But Still Cautious

I did take positions in IBB, SPY and more XLF this week, but all are down.

I can’t remember having all holdings negative, perhaps this has happened, but it seems foreign to see this.

How will this end? Well if could mean I made some good buys or it could end up pointing to bad timing that ends in losses.  I will let my sell rules guide me and limit my losses it that becomes needed.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.13

IBD (Investor Business Daily) has switched to: Confirmed Up Trend which was a surprise to see after Friday’s action, but the volume on Friday was lower than Thursday.

Copernicus Systems: Long but mixed IMHO.

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed down…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:

YHOO   -.88%

ETF’s for a trade are:

QQQ -.69%

XLF -1.43%

IBB -1.12%

SPY -1.03%

What will I do?

I would still like to add IWM and EWG, ALU, DRIV all look interesting.

I hope you have a great week.

Right Back In, But Cautiously So

I did the planned selling of FLT, BRLI, DTV, SANM, SOHU and WBSN based on the poor weekend review of last weekend. The net on this was at least positive. 

Fortunately I held onto XLF, YHOO and QQQ and just protected them with stop losses and decided to let the market decide when they should be sold….and they all held up well.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is at 2.16

IBD (Investor Business Daily) continues: Market Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Now up in some systems so mixed.... IMHO

Moneys Flows:  All three still pointed own…all still in positive territory, but one is still near zero

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

SANM  sold for +5.68 % gain
 
FLT  sold for +6.22% gain
 
SOHU  sold for +1.21% gain

DTV sold for -3.10% loss

WBSN sold for -.24% loss

BRCI sold for -2.10% loss

Held:
 
YHOO   +.22%

ETF’s for a trade are:

Held:

QQQ -.69%

XLF +.22%

What will I do?

I really am ready to dive back in but caution is this my guide. I will be looking to pick up IWM or the SPY or maybe both and I’m ready for IBB once again.

I hope you have a great week

Hold the Emotions, But More Selling to Come

I did some selling this past week as planned, followed with picking up DTV, WBSN, BRLI and XLF.

I will be mostly selling this week, even the newcomers.

What did I see in my weekend review?
The 10-yr Treasury yield continues to slowly rise, now up to 2.16%

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Market Under Pressure

Copernicus Systems: Short - Short for the US market, Short for Global
Moneys Flows:  All three pointed down…all still in positive territory, but one is near zero

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
GILD   Sold +4.87% gain

SANM  +5.11 % to be sold
BIIB  Sold +8.76% gain 
FLT  +6.24 to be sold
YHOO  -.81% to be sold 
SOHU  +.73% to be sold 

DTV -3.40% to be sold

WBSN -.01% to be sold

BRCI -1.93% to be sold

ETF’s for a trade are:

EFA  Sold +4.1% gain

EWJ Sold -2.20% loss

XLY Sold-.2 %loss

QQQ -.88% to be sold

XLF -.44% to be sold

What will I do?

I think I will go for a nice bike ride this evening.

I hope you have a great week

Time for a little selling

No I do not see a down trend but a some changes is rankings is moving me out of some stocks and ETF's

I did pick up more EWJ, and SANM this week, added  QQQ and XLY ....but now both EWJ and XLY will now be sold

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now up to 2.01

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long for the US market, short for Global
Moneys Flows:  Now all three point down…but all still in positive territory

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
GILD   +3.26% to be sold
SANM  +2.09% to be sold
BIIB  +8.01% to be sold, hope this nice profits holds
FLT  +.11% 
YHOO   +.02% 
SOHU  +.63%

ETF’s for a trade are:

EFA  -1.60 % to be sold

EWJ -2.00% to be sold

XLY -1.28% to be sold

QQQ -1.26%

What will I do?

I would like to add XLF and will be looking further at DTV and WBSN.

I will try using limit orders in the future at lower gains to try to better job of taking some profits as I'm just not available to watch the market as closely as needs to be

I hope you have a great week

Blog 116

It does not seem that I have written 116 blogs and that this began over two years ago.

I know the readership is limited but there have been 3550 views of these blogs from 901 viewers. 

There have been views from 23 countries outside of the USA.

The states with the most views have been Texas, Ohio, California, New York and Tennessee with views from 35 states in all.

So my thanks to those that read this ....and to others than have stumbled across it. 

I hope it has been of some interest to you. In a couple of years I hope to spend more time at this and probably use a different format.

It has been helpful to me to be transparent in what I am doing…sort of makes you try harder with folks looking over your shoulder and knowing they can chuckle at your mistakes.

I did pick up more FLT this week, some YHOO and SOHU.

(Sohu.com Inc. provides online media, search, gaming, community, and mobile services in the Peoples Republic of China).

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now up to 1.95

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Confirmed Up Trend

Copernicus Systems: Long

Moneys Flows:  One pointed up, two pointed down


Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)
GILD   +4.27%
SANM  +9.82%
BIIB  +4.16% 
FLT  +.11%

YHOO   +.02%

SOHU  -1.13%

ETF’s for a trade are:

EFA  +.96% Includes stocks from Europe, Australasia and the Far East.

EWJ +3.14% Japan

What will I do?

I never picked up the Biotech ETF IBB, that I wanted but now I like one better; XLY, the Consumer Discretionary.

Instead of waiting for IWM, I now like QQQ, the 100 of the largest the NASDAQ.

So I will be looking at adding XLY and QQQ and for stocks I am curious about GIB and OTEX which had nice jumps this week.

Perhaps I now need to sell the BIIB and GILD, just not sure.

I hope you have a great week

Back In The Saddle Again

After cleaning the slate last week, I quickly dove back in.

What did I see in my weekend review?

The 10-yr Treasury yield is now up to 1.90.

IBD (Investor Business Daily): Confirmed Up Trend.

Copernicus Systems: Long.

Moneys Flows:  Not Available as of this writing.

Currently my "Stocks for a Trade" now consists of:
(All gains or losses shown are the total since purchase)

GILD   -2.07% Gilead Sciences, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers, develops, and commercializes human therapeutics for the treatment of life threatening diseases in North America, Europe, and Asia.

SANM  +4.13% Sanmina Corporation provides integrated electronics manufacturing services worldwide.

BIIB  -2.10% Biogen Idec Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets therapies for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, hemophilia, and autoimmune disorders in the United States and internationally.


FLT  -.49% FleetCor Technologies, Inc. provides fuel cards and workforce payment products and services to businesses, commercial fleets, oil companies, petroleum marketers, and government entities in North America, Latin America, and Europe.

ETF’s for a trade are:

EFA  +.38% Includes stocks from Europe, Australasia and the Far East.

EWJ +.6% Japan

IBB   Biotech ….waiting

What will I do?

For stocks I did pick up BIIB and GILD and had AMGN on my radar...and I picked up SANM and FLT.

For ETF's I was able get an initial position in Japan’s EWJ and the International EFA.

I would like to pick up more EFA  and need an initial position in IWM the ETF for small cap stocks, the Russell 2000.

I really want to get back into the Biotech ETF IBB.

I hope you have a great week.